Simple strategy, need your thoughts

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by BillySimas, Apr 21, 2009.

  1. If there's one thing I've learned from years and years of looking at charts, it's one simple concept: when you have a large range bar (when I say large, I mean a couple times greater than the ATR for say the last 30 bars or so) that closes at its high, there's generally some continuation of that move.

    One thing that just makes logical sense to me is to set up a 2:1 reward-risk by entering at the market just as this bar closes. You could set a stop just below the open of the bar so the target would basically be double the bar's range. This is fairly simple, I haven't backtested it yet but I'm guessing if you weed out trades where the RSI is too high and the close of the bar is not at any major support level, you'd have a good win rate. Thoughts? Is this a viable strategy or is it just noise?
     
  2. 1) Call it what you will: initiating range extension (Market Profile lingo), impulsive price movement (Elliott Wave lingo), volatility breakout (Bar Chart lingo), momentum et al.
    2) Ultimately, you have to feel confident enough to act on the large range bar as it is unfolding and not get too hung up on other lagging indicators to "confirm" what you already know is happening.