Simple Strategy, Looking For Comments To Improve

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Kanzei, Jul 28, 2008.

  1. Kanzei


    Looking for any ways to improve/tweak this strategy. Please be constructive, as this strategy has been working relatively well.

    Trading EUR/USD on 5 minute chart and USD/JPY on 10 minute chart... same strategy.

    I trade when 20,40 SMA confirms a cross with 2-3 candles AND MACD is in agreement AND there is no *major support or resistance in the way.

    I have a 15-20 pip trailing stop loss (traded such that it represents 1% of my account). If I am awake and sitting in front of the computer I do not use a limit order and simply close the position when it's time to open one in the other direction (or shortly before). If I am sleeping (during the Asian session) I put a 75 pip limit on (6% gain).

    If a trailing stop hits on a winner and the indicators are still for a continuation, I usually enter a new position when the MACD comes back or shortly after.

    It was good for about 21% gains the last 10 days, but there are times when there are 7 or 8 small losers lined up...

    any thoughts to tweak it... should I be employing another indicator?
  2. Try your strategy using the 60 min chart for trend identification and the 15min chart for entry exit signals and confirmation. Based on your indicators you should get larger gains and drop a few percentage points on your losers. Before you trade this, compare both chart set ups and get back to me. I am curious what the feedback would be. Also, you can try 20 & 5 sma on your chart set up and you should get a little more accuaracy on entry exit points.
  3. syspool


    I rely on Stoch and CCI as forewarners. Very reliable. Correct in more than 80% of the moves/trend changes.

    On 15 min charts I use 2 Stochs - 42,42,3 and 63,63,3 and 2 CCIs 60,36 and 90,54.

    I came away from using MACD, because it can at times be very misleading. I use EMA20, though.

    Happy trading, Felix
  4. I agree syspool, stoch & cci are the most reliable indicators for trend changes identification. I am glad to see someone else with an 80% success rate with those indicators. Using the macd in conjunction with fibonacci helps some or atleast helps with tighting stops on getting caught in retracements.
  5. Kanzei


    Without crunching numbers but looking at your suggestion side by side on my esignal charts, it looks to me like using the 60 minute chart would create fewer losers and far smaller winners, as it is WAY behind (as you would expect) in predicting a change, and really only works on a continuation of a trend that has already begun.

    I like the 5,20 SMA though, and will probably mathematically backtest that.

    thanks for the feedback. this gives more signals obviously (since only 5 candles are being examined on the short side) but the losers appear to be small on false signals. adding the MACD in that, it might be fine as those signals would not always line up.