We had two classes (20 IBD and 7 incubators) running concurrently from 8:30 to 4;00 today. The posts by vienna are very instructive. Let me summarize. The SPM thread is run by the OP who is now named trader28lite. He has posted a set of items for doing trading and they have the caveats that he stated which on a descetionary basis improve the results. The trades and prints and anotated charts that go with SPM are the theme of this thread. I posted an example of an indicator and its associated signal. the were 14 or so actions. An action in trading for me when using a simple indicartor and its signals are reversals. A reversal keep you in the market because you take profits AND reneter in the opposite direction in one action. This is a old and reverse trading technique which matches the P, V relation. My illustration tried to show the "signals" on the indicator STOCH (5, 2, 3) which behaves as a "sentiment" indicator. Sentiment means "long" or "short" roughly. We are all puzzled about snarly because he is a person who tells us thins and it appears he doe not have down how the opposite of telling works. For all of the hours of the market, in my example, you would be in the market and on the "right" side of the market. Long then short, then long, etc through the day and closing out at the end. these holds continued to make money in segments where the "action" was to take profits and, at the same time goback in the market on the opposite side. The signal came during a given five minute bar. The time in the bar was when the line crossed the 50% of the STOCH (5, 2, 3). You will see when you look at the line that it is "flapping" during the formation of the bar that is forming. The prior bar value acts as a hinge point for the flapping. Therefore and ecel spread sheet can have any number of different values for a given trade. The close of the bar is not likely or is the opn. Ends or near ends of bars are more likely. You can pick the end that makes more money fr example. I would because it makes me richer and for sure the line has crossed the 50% at that time. What happens to a person who "gets it". They are then ready to begin to walk a path to better trading by improving their beginning point. If you log what is going on and make trades you have a record of using the indicator and its signal. You see the results the OP has gotten using his signals and his descretion by the logs he has posted. Here you take MY signals and make YOUR log and see how the trades went. Snarly only does telling and can't tell us what he did because he doesn't get the input that vienna got and so responded in a very excellent way with very excellent understanding. Congrats. I would have liked snarly to have done what vienna did. It is not harmful. Everyday there should be the SPM results logs postedby those who did SPM. The single indicator and its "signal" is something that keeps you in the market all the time and the trading segments keep you doing the opposite of "whiplash". the poorest times of holds get you to usually be on about a "wash" level. All of the time you are on the right side of the market. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT. All of the time you are in the market. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT. This is te beginning of learning ow to trade the paradigm for making money: POOL EXTRACTION. The conventional paradigm is a gaming paradigm. It involes betting, protection, and the odds. I skip ll of this type of thinking because it is not possible to predict the markets, but rather, instead: be ont the right side of the market and be in the market to make mone. From one beginning place you then begin to build what is needed to be effective and efficienct with respect to optimizing the potential the market offers. diner time.
Jack Hershey, We are in agreement. Thank you for your help!!! We want to make money as efficiently as possible. But also with a system that is easy to understand and works the same way everytime. Then let the odd's play themselves out. Before we could do that we had to set our rules of play so everyone could see them and understand them. In my mind that is what we are doing now. Getting our "rules" of play that are very accurate and everyone can see and measure. Vienna did something that I could not do. Different software? Better mind? So, way to go Vienna we appreciate your help. We are very close Jack to be able to go real time with this system and make money in an efficient predictable way. snarlyjack
snarlyjacl: Good work! Keep it up I trade the ES not the YM yet. But I use Strategy Runner Platform and can not use your set up. However I trade currency pairs and place your exact layout on them with different time frames and LOOKS very promising. Best! HR
Jack, If the signal is the 50% crossover during the bar formation and you enter at the end of the bar that is the best price (assuming the opportunity presents itself) then the indicator will have flapped back to the other side of 50% at that time and you do not know if the bar will close with the crossover confirmed. If it closes the wrong side would you wash?
I've answered my own question. Doing a quick and dirty estimate (see excel sheet attached) Jack's crossover method would have yielded between 25 and 145 (average 85) YM points in 14 actions on 16 Jan. The wide range is down to the trader's ability to get near to the best price in the bar, following the signal - bar closes don't cut it but are still net profitable. Seems it is a SPM after all.
10 period SMA +2 (Triangular preferred if you have it) would have filtered out the false crosses and kept you in the true ones
PointOne: Agree with your spreadsheet of the trades.... seems on quick eyeball to be similar to mine. Maybe I am dense, but I still don't get it: a 5 minute bar starts. The Stoch flips around it's "hinge" and crosses UP, let's say after 2 minutes. You try to enter that same bar (not the next one) near the end of the bar (let's say after 4 Minutes) that is opposite of your trading direction (the bottom in a long, as per Jack: "the end that makes you more money") , after the Stoch has crossed. How exactly would you do that? Wouldn't the Stoch have likely crossed back down? I understand that you still make money if you enter at the close, but that is not my point...
Thanks for responding Jack. You wrote: 1. I thought that previously you had stated to Snarly that EVERY entry was profitable: For exits you use the same signals as for entry, right? The cross of the Stoch, that's it? I show 4 losses on my spreadsheet, perhaps due to less than ideal entry or exit? Not trying to be a stickler, but precision is needed to avoid confusion...just clarifying. 2. The above also means that, in this specific case, unlike to what Nkhoi was assuming, there is no other filter involved. Correct? 3. You said something about wanting to show that the indicator (s?) could have ANTICIPATORY value, meaning that either this or another indicator shows the likelyhood of what was GOING to happen. What are you talking about in this case? Volume? The other Stoch? MACD? Thanks as always!
In this case you would use it as a line in the sand, if the Stoch is crossing above 50% but price is below the SMA then it may be a false signal to the upside and vice versa