Vienna, Let me address making money with you. The average of ET taders in ES is 1 point a day average net profit. For a margin of 2,000 bucks per contract Lets determine he annal net for the player at this level. he could only have three smaller nets per day as a practicality and still be making money they are: 3 ticks, 2 ticks and 1 tick. We know the answer that you get because you told us how you think and calculate. Start out with one contract as a risk consideration based upon the idea to not trade anymore money than you have to when you are learning to do mathematics. To understand anything about me and why others have their problems in fathoming anything I state, a person has to advance beyond arithmetic. We need to get past arithmetic into algebra 1. Every 40 days of trading the person, has the capital to double down in contracts. Think of it as a series even though the subject of series does not come up directly in some algebra 1 classes. Ordinarily it is brought up in arithmatic since it is the basis of the rules of arithmetic in igh quality schools. Many people go through life in arather uneducated way. Street's smarts step in to help them out occassionally. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16. 32, 50 numbers of cotracts that relate to the business days in he calendar 1, 41, 81, 121, 161, 201, and the last day 241 of business. I do not recommend trading over 50 contracts the first year as just a condition based on experience. this is what happens to the average ET trader's capability in a year as he ploughs his average of 1 point per day per contract bck into the market. 1 point per day makes 40 points in 40 days. Then the person can take his original risk money and his profits and trade two contracts for 40 more days and then he can add 2 more contracts. Does he do this? no of course not. He is afraid to or he is smart enough to add a contract after 20 days instead. so 60 days out he is making 3 points a day and ploughing that back into the market as soon as possible. It takes 14 days to get another 40 points available ato add another contract. This is day 75 or so and he is now trading 4 contracts for another 10 days and he adds a fifth contract at day 85 of the year. From day 85 to 8 days further on he trades with 5 contracts and then adds the 6th. from day 93 to day 100 he trades 7 contracts. So you can see by now that every 100 das a person gets to have 7 times the contracts at work. So 200 plus days out he is trading to make 15 points a day. This is an ET trader making an average of 1 point a day per contract. In a little over 204 days for an ET person he and I are just a like but I only have 1 contract working and making the money. But as you have guessed I do not trade 1 contract. For any ET person making 1 point a day per contract and starting with only one and if he knows how to add contracts (skip learning how the compound interest formula works), he is just like me making 15 points a day after about 204 days. So the moral of the story is: not many people know how to make 1 point a day in ES. All of these eople cannot envision me or anyone making money in the markets. 90% of the people who look at the markets and play for a while do not continue. They do not have the margin to continue. What a lot of peple here are talking about is wanting proof of something. How can a person get this proof? They can't get it. It is like that movie the Da Vinci Code. You can't have the proof until your mind will give it to you. I can't give it to anyone as has been proven on ET. It is "unbelievable". 1123581321 was the first code and apple was the second(obviously they translated apple from the Latin and updated the stored machine or they would have had to use the Latin for apple). (Newton worked in latin.) Pomme would have worked in Paris, but humorously, Howard, had to go to England. LOL... The mind is a funny thing. When it is impossible to build it logically, there is no way a person can think about anything important. You cannot imagine how many people on ET are unwillig to learn but they spend all of their time trying to invent stuff. How can anyone learn anything if they outsmart trhemselves by not building their minds. The SCT trading is much more fun than just getting the Da Vinci code done. Vinegar is just a grade school version of writing secret notes. Seamless continuous trading means being in the maret all the time and being on the right side o the market all the time. Here is the secret proof you want. Take a chart and draw zigzags on it and add them up. Multiply by 1, 10, 25 or 50 contracts. You draw zigzags with your fingers grasping a pen and write on a chart. Why not do the same on a chart that is forming; use contracts instead of a pen. I am called an egomaniac by people. They love to do it and then what the record shows of all the people doing it is meaningless to them for a while. The best proof of SCT is using SCT to make money. What I do means nothing. What you do means everything. 1. Make a choice to build your mind. 2. Learn PVT down cold. (double your capital and remove the initial capital). 3. Chose to transfer the template to SCT trading 4. Build your mind as the days go by by working with 1 contract. 5. Double your capital and remove the initial capital. 6. Add contracts as soon as it is possible. 7. Go to a value of 10 or 25 or 50 contracts and sweep your account every week. 8. Put the swept money in the PVT account. 9. really learn PVT and SC by teaching others. 10. When your PVT streams reach 100,000 share level each begin the sector rotation trading. 11. Set up a foundation to formalize your community service and free your profit taking in some areas from being taxed. So what do people who are unable to do this stuff do. 1. They criticize instead of steps 1, 2 and 3. No one who has embarked on steps 1, 2, and 3 has been focussed on criticizing. 2. They are so smart that they take shortcuts to being pros. These are people who want to start at step 4 but they don't do steps 1, 2, and 3 and they are asking questions about changing a thing they read here or there (and did not do it either) to change it into something "new" that they "invented" as better than working to build their minds. No mind building is going on; they are connecting inventions to what they already have figured out before they read about this stuff. Tire repair service employees so to speak. 3. They "invent" stuff that doesn't work. This is a tough situation inventing something that does not work to get to a place better than what works. anger and all kinds of stuff showup at this level. 4. They run out of money and quit and bad mouth the industry to the world at the places they have jobs. Anyone who gets to step 5 has it made in the shade; the rest follows.
Jack, a question if I may. "2. Learn PVT down cold. (double your capital and remove the initial capital). 3. Chose to transfer the template to SCT trading" Please explain the terms PVT & SCT. Thanks in advance. Mo
he started 50 years ago - and makes ...% per year? so how come he is not on the list of worlds richest? no matter how much $$ he had when he started - he should have XXX billions today - so where is all that money? he and his followers should have made more than enough money to stop all the hunger in the world - for example - so...?
My cursory look at flipping direction instead of just getting out has some validity. Need to look at it closer but there might be something there. The big problem is the constant flipping when the market chops, need to recognize this and stay out until the next trend. Easier said than done though.
JACK, I went back and read your "Stochastic's combined with the Macd" method of trading. All 285 pages. I must admit it was very interesting. " Shooting rockets I believe"! Anyway, help me get this straight in my mind. By combining the stochastics with the macd you get much more accurate trades. (that's what I am looking for). In your examples in the stochastics and macd method you use (?). MACD settings (5,6,13). MACD Histogram (5,13,6). Stochastic Crossover (5,2,3) and sometimes (14,1,3). and a channel like the (Keltner Channel) ? also watching the volume bars. So were all looking at the same things are these settings correct? Thanks for all your help and posts Jack!!! snarlyjack
I missed the huge drop starting around 11:30 because I was pissed I screwed up a trade earlier and lost money. Got to keep those emotions in check and take what the market gives me, not try to force it.
I am all for the power of positive thinking and setting goals, but I do not agree with the assertion that a new trader starting at 1 contract will be easily trading 50 contracts within one year. Certainly, a trader can average 1 point of profit per day in the ER2 contract. A net profit of $100 per contract each trading day is a reasonable goal given a modest level of persistence and trading skill. And theoretically when the geometric progression is applied, the trader could achieve the 50 contracts per trade level in 241 days of trading, ( assuming no losing days ). In your conclusion you observe that 90% of the people who try trading fail. Thus, the outcome you propose would then only apply to perhaps 1 or 2 individuals of the remaining 10% of the surviving traders. The simple reason is this, at $500 per tick, very few traders can handle the heat of trading 50 contracts per trade in the ER2 market. And certainly not the average individual who just a few months prior was chipping away with just 1 contract at $10 per tick. Let's look at the opposite side of the equation. Losses. For the sake of simplicity, let's apply an average loss of ten ticks to our losing trade. Thus a single losing trade is $100 for one contract, and $5,000 for 50. A second loss in a row totals $200, and $10,000, and the third is $300 and $15,000. In daytrading the ER2, a series of 3 losses in a row is not uncommon. How will this new trader react to the loss of $15,000 before lunch ? Somewhere between $10 and $500 per tick, between losing $300 and $15,000 in an hour or two, the new trader will discover a threshold or risk tolerance, and my guess is it will be much closer to 5 contracts than 50.
I wanna be like Jack, except not so full a doo doo...gotta be drugs, to0 weird not to be what the heck is SCT? oh, I've tried reversing during the choppy periods. To me this is swing trading. I'll do it between S & R lines on the 2 min chart. Sell 1, then buy 2 limit, then sell 2 limit. This is a little quicker than is comfortable for me though. Also, I like a range of at least 1.5 pts, some of the chop today was tighter than that. Who the heck bought 791.7 today? what, they just faded that lower low after the fed? kinda makes sense, the market traded down all morning because they knew the Fed was not going to lower rates, then you wait for the actual report bet a little dip and buy! especially so close to the lower daily trendline. dang I woulda thought it would have went down to 790 though. That was a pivot and also where I have the lower trendline on the daily charts. Sell the rumor buy the news I guess. Where's the Aussie? take care
Beeflover - SCT is Seamless Continuous Trading......a Jack term. Did you notice that the run down to the low in the ER2 occured BEFORE the Fed announcement? Someone was having fun running all the stops in the thin market pre-announcement. And there were no new lows at that time in the ES (too much liquidity there to play around with). Sandy