Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jimns, Apr 30, 2007.

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  1. GTS

    GTS

    Yes any length streak of tails is possible.

    You think otherwise? Then you tell us - what is the "absolute highest consecutive amount of tails you may get" and explain what happens on the next toss that forces it to go heads so as to not exceed the "absolute".

    If you think about what you are saying you must realize how silly it sounds. Getting 100 tails in a row is possible but not 101?
     
    #81     May 22, 2007
  2. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    My man, you just won't get 100 consecutive tails perhaps until you are dead many times over :)

    I have a better question for you, assuming a 50/50 outcome on every single toss, what are the odds of getting a run of 20 consecutive tail tosses?
     
    #82     May 22, 2007
  3. GTS

    GTS

    That's what computers are for. Nice how you refused to answer the question. So you think that 20 tails in a row are possible but not 21?

    1/(2^20)

    Edit: Please read this Wiki page, it applies directly to what we are talking about: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

    Please look at the part I've highlighted below:

     
    #83     May 22, 2007
  4. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    I didn't refuse to answer your question, as I never said what you posted there was no need to oblige the request.

    It is a 50/50, but what happens to odds of getting tails after 10 consecutive, then 20, then 30? The odds do not remain the same.

    edit - and you link confirms the above, I did not say anything about getting a consecutive run of heads after so many tails, I just said that because 1 in 2 chance is an equal amount and keeping in mind that odds of getting a long run deminish after every consecutive tails toss - that means that probability of getting heads increases :)
     
    #84     May 22, 2007
  5. GTS

    GTS

    No you are wrong, the odds remain the same. Again, I put the burden back on you to justify your statement. If the odds are not 50/50 after getting 20 tails then what are the "new odds" for that 21st flip? Be specific.

    You really should educate yourself before continuing to make a fool out of yourself - this is not a difficult concept.
     
    #85     May 22, 2007
  6. Allaces

    Allaces

    Dude give it up.. you are not a mathematician and they must have the final word here.. one of the biggest character flaws that flushes traders out of the market is not being able to admit they are wrong about a trade.. this stubborn refusal to believe mathematics does not bode well for your trading discipline
     
    #86     May 22, 2007
  7. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    You are really something, here is a paragraph from your link:

    What is the probability of flipping 21 heads in a row, with a fair coin? 1 in 2,097,152!!!
     
    #87     May 22, 2007
  8. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    3 lower peaks + divergence
     
    #88     May 22, 2007
  9. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Of course I am not & I am not arguing for the sake of it. Nobody can dispute that chances of getting 30 consecutive tails are the same as getting 10 or 50, even though it is a 50/50 chance on every single coin flip.

    I just want to repeat that I have never said that you are bound to get 20 heads after a run of 20 consecutive tails, I only said that it is inevitable that you would get 1 toss of heads sooner or later, that's all.
     
    #89     May 22, 2007
  10. Allaces

    Allaces

    No.. but you did say the chances of getting a tail are enhanced after 20 heads in a row... and I think you still believe it despite what you've been told
     
    #90     May 22, 2007
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