Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jimns, Apr 30, 2007.

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  1. That was exactly what i saw this afternoon. Sold it at 1520. it was a good one.
     
    #51     May 17, 2007
  2. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Discussion is to do with SPM. You don't necessarily need indicators to make money, but being able to time the market properly is of great importance to be able to maximise profits unless you trade Mr Carboni's 10+ point stops trading 1 contract. One of those methods to "zoom into correct entries" is SPM, some agree, some disagree.
     
    #52     May 18, 2007
  3. Allaces

    Allaces

    Who got a piece of that zero line cross? you could feel it building
     
    #53     May 18, 2007
  4. GTS

    GTS

    The only thing more amazing then JSSPMK's original statement about the increased odds of winning a BJ hand after a string of losers is his rebuttal to jimns that if you want "proof" you should play a few hands and see for yourself.

    Sorry, after that it's hard to give anything posted by JSSPMK much credence.
     
    #54     May 18, 2007
  5. Allaces

    Allaces

    Ok he doesn't understand probability.. all us ex gamblers know each toss of the coin is a discrete unique event in time and regardless of streaks it is always a 50% chance.. and unless you are rainman and counting cards 4 decks deep it holds true for BJ too.. however

    He may be right for different reasons in that the first couple of zero line cross attempts are build ups to the larger time cycles kicking in or the market probing levels

    I personally take them all because the losers are small and the winners tall
     
    #55     May 18, 2007
  6. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Why do you disregard streaks? That is exactly why probability of getting a winning hand increases after several consecutive losses & I think I did say that it is not a 100% strategy, simply probability increases. I don't know whether that matters or not now, but I was going on about online single player BJ. I was drawing parallels between the SPM, the way I see it, and BJ. Nice weekend to all.

    BTW nothing too cute in ES using SPM today.
     
    #56     May 18, 2007
  7. Allaces

    Allaces

    You cant apply streaks the way you say... if the roulette wheel comes up black 3 times in a row you do not have a better chance of it coming up red on the 4th spin.. I know that sounds counter intuitive because eventually red and black will even out but each spin is isolated and an equal chance regardless of what came before it..

    Try betting the table on red only after 3 blacks in a row.. know what happens to this system over time? 50/50.. any gambler that has studied probability knows this to be true

    http://www.knowyourluck.com/coins1.html

    And BTW.. plenty of cute stuff in the ER2.. thought I made that clear 400 pages ago
     
    #57     May 18, 2007
  8. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    I sense a partial agreement on your part in the 2nd part of the above paragraph. Problem with BJ is that wins can't be extended the way a trade can be ie BJ pays out 100% of stake and a trade can return a lot more than initial stop loss. So it is not a viable strategy to use the Martingale approach in gambling as far as I am concerned. Secondly, I disagree with your first part of the above paragraph, due to statistics. Probability increases after every consecutive loss.
     
    #58     May 21, 2007
  9. Allaces

    Allaces

    Ask a mathematician, you are completely wrong
     
    #59     May 21, 2007
  10. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Maybe somebody else wants to comment on this? I don't know any mathematicians.
     
    #60     May 21, 2007
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