Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by jimns, Apr 30, 2007.

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  1. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    Yes, I believe that to be true even though it remains to be a 50/50 case. In trading we rely on probabilities all the time, the same in the coin flip, because it's to do with 50/50 and decreasing probability of continueing to get consecutive tails. Come on guys, the chance of getting 21 consecutive tails is 1 in over 2m, that is pretty remote, is it not? 22 even more, 30 a lot more. It is possible, but very unlikely to happen to any of us.
     
    #91     May 22, 2007
  2. Allaces

    Allaces

    For the last time.. mathematical impossibility.. you are wrong and are beginning to sound like a petulant child that cannot admit being wrong.. trading is not for you.. A: without a "correct" understanding of probability.. B: the courage to admit when you are wrong
     
    #92     May 22, 2007
  3. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    If you can prove to me that it is just as likely to get 20 consecutive tails as 3, then I will agree with you :)
     
    #93     May 22, 2007
  4. GTS

    GTS

    What you have written above (bolded) is a contradiction.

    You are confusing two different concepts.

    Yes the odds of getting 21 tails in a row is remote. The odds of getting 22 tails in a row are even more remote. However if you do get 21 tails in a row, the odds of making it to 22 tails in a row are still 50/50 because each coin toss is a discrete event that is not dependent on any previous coin toss.

    You are repeating the gamblers fallacy to a T. I can't believe you read that whole Wiki article and still do not see how fundamentally flawed your thinking is.
     
    #94     May 22, 2007
  5. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    "more remote" is key to this arguement, what is the opposite of more remote?

    Also 50/50 is a lot more advantageous than 10/90, is it not?
     
    #95     May 22, 2007
  6. hahahaha lol Jimmeeeeeeeeeeeeeee you pimp -----GOD! are you a baby run and tell now jimmmeeee be a good mommy's boy

    LMAO!!! whaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!
     
    #96     May 22, 2007
  7. Allaces

    Allaces

    You just keep embarrassing yourself, you have been given several links that have already proven it.. people are laughing at you
     
    #97     May 22, 2007
  8. GTS

    GTS

    I asked you what are the odds of the coin coming up heads on the 21st flip (after having already flipped 20 heads) and you respond with this (the answer to a completely different question)?

    One more time - after having flipped a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row, what are the odds of the next flip being heads? Do you understand that it is 50/50 (same as every other toss) or do you still cling to the incorrect belief that the odds of it coming up tails is greater?
     
    #98     May 22, 2007
  9. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    fine, it's a mathematical fact that it is a 50/50, it's also a fact that it is a lot more unlikely to get 20 consecutive compared to 3 consecutive. That's probability, and gamblers fallacy is different to what I am saying here. You can laugh all you want, you both fail to prove me to be wrong so far :)
     
    #99     May 22, 2007
  10. JSSPMK

    JSSPMK

    50/50, but do you understand what 50/50 means when analysing probability of continuation?

    And because with every consecutive heads the chances of getting another heads deminish that makes it more possible to get tails.
     
    #100     May 22, 2007
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