Yes, exactly. Also, i have traded the ER2 exclusively for over two years and it recently moved to ICE as TF. i'm not used to TF yet and the data i'm getting from them has been delayed and unreliable. I expect it to improve. I can trade the ES but it bores me. I am mainly waiting for hank and buddies to stop f###ing with the market. If he'd tell me ahead of time what he is going to do, i'd trade, but he didn't call me. I don't use any of those fancy, city slicker indicators. Price, volume, breadth, A/D, and 30 Yr bond and various indices and futures are mainly what i monitor.
I'm not sure why just above the mid point of long falling bars is likely location for stops, but i'm guessing it has to do with late entries (i.e., chasing) into a big falling bar and not wanting to place your stop so far away from your entry as over the top of a long bar would be. But i can tell you from experience, that just over the mid point of long, falling bars (or just under for rising bars) is where you often find stops.
Well that's the right attitude at least. As someone on ET said: "Trading is a loser's game -- He who loses best, wins." P.S. I forgot to mention in my response to Dackster above the most important indicator of all for me: support and resistance. I basically sell at resistance and buy at support. It's that simple most of the time. Of course the trick is to know where support and resistance is, and how strong it will be. And how to recognize when these have been broken or are likely to be. My trading is very simple, but it took me a long time to get good at it. I suppose it is pretty much the same for everyone. But i do see posts on ET that propose trading methods that seem far to complex for me to follow. Whatever floats your boat.
Im convinced that S&R are all you need. I also do not use trendlines except on time frames of daily or longer.
It is the balance point of any given wave. It is a fibonacci number to support that as a area of concern!
Thanks ,P , for your insights. I'd like to hear more. and especially about the whole market ,the failing economy ,and how will it affect trading. Ive been studying forex now for 9 months.I believe I have the instinct and mind for it, but I still struggle. Ive been trading for about 4 months and losing small amounts every day.mostly due to stop loss set too tight,getting stopped out. After 9 months of 10 hour day studying, I really now see the extreme importance of support/resistance levels. I notice it more. I would have traded better had I seen it better these months. Ive spent too much time and effort drawing trendlines,only to now discover that placing several SMA on a chart will achieve the same thing, often a better vision (SMA 15,30,50,100) Ive tried to find the right times of day to play....theres no clear pattern. I would see alot of price action in the london opening times,and very little in the asian sessions....then, just when you think youve got it pegged....they change the pattern,and I see soaring prices in the middle of asian session and stagnation in london.so it always seems like its a game of falling back to square one,all the time. I believe the Forex game is highly Rigged. by the Bank system,the government/central banks/big money players/etc... as well as the brokers playing their little tricks as well. What kind of puzzle game is this....when you examine the trendlines and price action ...In Hindsight... you can see Exactly how price moved, and you wonder how you could Possibly Miss seeing it as it was happening. why is is so clear in hindsight and so hard to see as its happening? I believe its because the game is rigged in that way, whether by computer systems,set up by the central banks, or government systems,or a combination, this game is set up to be seductive to pull people into it, and just when you think you see what (they want you to see) like the carrot and the stick, all indicators point the way, all price action points the way, and then suddenly they switch the game on you,spike the price action ,disconnect the platform,reverse the price,....they show you a downtrend that goes just a few pips below the critical s/r point,then just above the next critical s/r point....just to fake you out,and take your money. I'm a very smart person, and spent 12 hours a day studying this forex game. and I have to say, its beyond just tricky....its totally rigged.the manipulation by the central banks/government players etc...Ive seen it in action now for these 9 months,mostly involving the euro/usd....totally manipulated. like the price of oil. involves politics and power.setting up for war,or the crashing economy. the corruption of the federal reserve and the us government in the whole corrupt system. the phoney valuations of oil, gold and silver,etc. I wonder if trying to play this forex game at this time is wise for anyone, even experts. If the game was a fair and level playing field. then you could see technical analysis work. you could see fundamentals work. and they DO work, at those times when the bankers/government players arent manipulating things. but it seems to me , these days, its all being manipulated and controlled right down to the 1 minute time frame.and Every s/r price point. how can anyone possibly have a clue where price will go in a game like this? I'm watching for higher highs/higher lows patterns.... triple tops and bottoms, etc....trying to find a solid 10 minute play zone in a 1 hour time frame. the only way you can do it is by setting your stop 20 pips away,and risk losing that much in every trade. maybe thats what I'm not willing to do. sorry for the long post. I'm just getting tired of playing this rigged game. it took me 9 months and 1000 dollars lost, to realize how rigged the game is.
tom123, from my own observations on forex I pretty much agree. But now you have your observations I don't see you logically extrapolating from them. Going from what you've said, you shouldn't show your stop. You shouldn't use conventional TA. You should look for something else. You should EXPECT a reverse just when conventional TA says it's clear sailing. If this looks a little too tricky maybe another market is better
I trade forex Tom. Everyday. I can easily tell you right now that you have become so risk averse that you will never succeed in trading it. A 20pip stop is NOTHING. That is just noise. I trade with a 20 pip stop now but that is only after many many years of screen time. to succeed in trading forex in the beginning I was using 50-100pip stops at minimum. 200 on the gbp/jpy. Forget what you have learned and start over. Once you succeed at trading everything was worth it.