simple price pattern is tip off to sudden reverse

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by piezoe, Sep 19, 2008.

  1. piezoe


    OK, it's raining, i'm bored. don't want to trade in this market today. I'm $70 up (Whopee) and i'm out of here. I'm waiting until the smoke clears and the rules stop changing before i get serious about intraday again.

    So, at the risk of boring the many brilliant traders here on ET, here is a little tip for new traders that experienced traders all know about. It has to do with price patterns.

    Depending on time of day, volume and volatility, the market has a more or less hard time reversing and taking out stops. But that happens often enuf, and so how can you be warned that such a move is likely on the way.

    (Sorry but i'm no good at posting visuals so i've got to give you a word description instead.)

    It is very simple though. When the market looks to be moving down in a stairstep pattern with each high a little below the last one you have a pattern that's perfect for ripping higher and taking out stops. Why? Because traders tend to put their stops above the preceding bar or candle. I won't go into whats the best place for a stop, but this is probably not it. So look for that pattern and the longer it goes on and the more developed it is the greater the probability that the market is going to reverse and take out all those stops. Remember that clustered stop orders above a bar get executed at about the same time and that provides the impetus to move up to the next cluster of stops and take those out as well, etc. You will detect this action as a bunch of quick jerks up, then a little fall back perhaps, then another jerk up etc. For an experienced trader, it is very easy to identify this phenomenon.

    The same thing in reverse happens if the market is moving up and you have a series of stair-stepped higher lows. Where do inexperienced traders put their stops? Right under the previous bar. Now you have a situation that is made to order for the market to rip lower taking out the stops of the longs.

    So watch for these patterns to develop and be forewarned that when you see them a sudden reverse my be imminent.

    As an aside, i'll add that when you have long bars encompassing a large range, the stops tend to be placed just above the mid point of the bar, so be aware of that.

    Good trading everyone.
  2. Thanks piezoe, great post.

    What's the reason and logic for your last statement?
  3. TRAS


    The best one is bar failures, If your going again the trend up on the interday and see a bullish pattern and the pattern fails. price pulls back that is a sign of weakness.
  4. TRAS


    The is the mid point of that range for that time frame it is the base line.
  5. TRAS


    End of the range is determined by the mid point that where you look for the last pattern i was talking about a failure of a pattern or positive tweezer bars called ross hooks. If the bars fail to pull back to the 50% is alway better to wait for a 123 formation to enter because the wave is weak and need confirmation to continue unless you like play to Vegas.
  6. TRAS


    It is a sign that the wave is weaking and may be going into a 2/4 wave which is very choppy!
  7. tras, you got a pic?

  8. Why are you out? The same numbers are in play, the same mechanisms are still holding true. Is the market playing havoc with your indicator system?

    Maybe you need to step up a gear?:)
  9. TRAS


    That is a perfect example, you have a central pivot correct that is where most of the daily price pull back to during the day on a lot of chart. It can be done in the hourly or using a long range bar.
  10. TRAS


    You can use the daily range as a target by dividing the range by .50. You can use that as a target. or 61.8%
    #10     Sep 21, 2008