I shorted ES on Fri close. Initial stop 5 pts Initial profit target 10 pts. Your short term charts do have a bearish look to them intraday
Not every market day is a trading day especially with traders taking it easy today (very little volatility so far) in the wake of tomorrow's pending FOMC announcement. http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/b-econoday.htm Simply, if your trading today with the same position size (treating each different day with the same position size)... Your losing an edge in your money management. That edge allows you to exploit controlling your risk exposure via position size management. Best to just stay away and continue enjoying your beautiful day. Mark (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
That was a good decision. actually there was three reasons for me to believe the trade is doomed to fail. 1- we traded for more than 30 mns near the low of the day, the range is too narrow. 2- there is support at 60 ema (around 1287), 3- there is support at 1286.5 (yesterday chart on 5 mins). When I saw the green candle on 5 mins at 10:54, I decided to get out. I'll keep also a count on the potential gain/loss had I stayed the course. Number Trades: 3. Realised P/L: 1.5 pts loss Hit/Miss Potential P/L: 2 pts gain
I forgot completely tomorrow! I must say that all news channels are off, I don't want to get influenced and this forces me not to cancel the stops, because no one knows what might happen. For the size, actually when I don't feel the trade I trade only one contract, and a maximum of three contracts when I'm very confident (after a good trending day for example). Right now, I'm allocating around 25000$ for this journal experience. I risk no more than 3 points/contract which helps me to risk no more than 450$ on a trade. That's bellow the famous 2% of the account size. There was a good signal for a short at 2:05 pm, I missed it . It is ok it is not very convincing cause the price is not far from the 60 ema. I think I'll just follow your advice and go back out.
There is a long signal right here at 1283.75 for 2 or 3 pts, but I'm not trading today because of the fed meeting.
Today my resistance and support areas are: Resistance: 1288-1289 and 1293.5 Support: 1280.25 and 1278.5-1277.5 and 1273
Shorted at 1282.5 for 2 pts gain stop 3pts. This short has nothing to do with overbought oversold. I just feel the market is weak and there is resistance at the 60 period ema on the 5 min chart. Closed the trade at 1284.5 for 2 points loss. I fee like I shorted too low. Even the stop is very badly set. Total Realize: 3.5 pts loss 4 trades HMPP/L: still the same 2pts gain (this trade was not and overbought oversold trade).
Went long at 1283.25 stop 3.5 (1279.5) and target 3 pts. That's what I should have done at 1282.25!!!! Closed the trade at 1282.75 to take a breath, and take it easy. I don't like the 5 min chart for a long position right now. The chart is starting to tell me I'm wrong, but I don't care.. That's how I feel. Total ralized: 4 pts loss (5 trades). Hit/Miss Potential P/L: 2 pts gain.
Shorted back at 1284.5 for 3 pts gain target and 3 pts loss. The last trade of the day, whatever the outcome is. This is going to be a hit or miss. Covered at 1282.5 for 2 pts gain. I shouldn't have I couldn't resist. That's it for the day unless a very good setup shows up. Total: 2pts loss (6 trades) HMPP/L: 2 pts gain (wait and see how the last trade would have performed if I have left it). I'm thinking of posting the log of my trades from IB., but didn't figure out yet how to upload bitmaps.