Simple Overbought/Oversold journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by momoNY, Jan 27, 2006.

  1. momoNY

    momoNY

    Hi everyone,

    I have been following the markets for more than 5 years now. I tried every F thing, but it did not work. The last two years I have been basically treading water. Right now the only thing that seems to put me deep in the red is holding e-minis over night. Every time I do that I got burned big time.

    I want to start this journal, to force myself to close all positions at 4:15pm the late! and to get some inputs.

    I'll post trades I take using a simple method that tries to take advantage of overbought and oversold situations.

    My method is the simplest possible and it is based on price action only.
    I trade ES and look at 2 min, 5 min and 15 min charts.
    When there is an overbought condition on the 15mn, I wait to see the turn confirmed on the 5 mins as well as on the 2 mins. If that happens then I short and look for 2 to 3 pts. I risk always no more than 3 points. For Oversold condition it is just the opposite.

    I put a lot of discretion in here, sometimes I don't take a trade because I don't feel it or another system is pointing to the opposite direction.

    PS: I'm not too "bavard" speechy and I'm very busy at many other things, so please don't take it wrong if you don't see any comment about a (your) post for a while. Thanks and enjoy.
     
  2. I find that using hourly charts on ES allows to use overbought and oversold and hold overnight. Many times the entry for a trade is around 2:30 or 3:30 on hourlies as it was last Thurs. the shorter term charts signals are not reliable enough in my view and the hourlies allow less trades with more gravy per trade. Plus you can do other things while a trade is going on with hourly charts--Best regards
     
  3. As a discretionary price action only trader...

    What's your definition of an overbought or oversold condition in ES Emini Futures ???

    Mark
    (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
     
  4. momoNY

    momoNY

    On 15 min charts the overbought and Oversold don't occur that often. It takes time, from one to two hours. After that happens, however, the confirmation occurs short after. I found 15 mins to be the best combination for my patience.
     
  5. momoNY

    momoNY

    I did not say "I'm a discretionary price action only trader". I said I rely mainly on price action. There are tons of indicators, actually most of them rely on price only. I mean I don't use volume, A/D etc....
    Well, I use stochastic for overbought and oversold, that's the only indicator.
     
  6. momoNY

    momoNY

    Today, at least so far, seems a trending day. I'll jut stay away an return around 1 or 2 pm, to see if anything changes.
     
  7. momoNY

    momoNY

    If there is a lower low and a lower high on the 5 mins, I'll short for 2 points target and 3 points stop (max)


    Shorted at 1289, stop at 1291, target at 1287
     
  8. momoNY

    momoNY

    nearing 1 pm, nothing happened.
    Closing the position at break even 1289.
     
  9. momoNY

    momoNY

    There you go, ES 1285.5!!!!! That's where my mistakes come from. If I waited 10 more minutes, I would have gotten more than I was looking for.
     
  10. Bearish divergence on MACD Histogram occured on the 11:30 hourly ES chart today. This was drawn from the peak of the 5:30 AM MACD Histogram 01/26. No divergence on RSI
     
    #10     Jan 27, 2006