Planned for a late start that was even later, plus . . . Wasn't willing to live trade, did a couple of demo trades. I'm bouncing around in circles again, either I continue demo trading till I've experienced all that I feel I need to learn about this Signals Trading Method or, get trading and 'learn on the job' — 'Damn the torpedos ! Full Speed Ahead !' Looking back at today's opening there was a great trade 5:45 to 6:45 for 6-7 points, 'great' because there weren't any Corrections as the Price declined. Then the Price began to rally, but in a series of hillocky B S B S B trades, trades made within a one point spread. The signals from bars color change, T3 color change and gmacd lines ~ gls crossing, were all valid but, trades one could do without, except, one Has to take them or go completely subjective and give up trading the signals completely. Dumped the minutes bars except for the 60 and added an extra higher time frame colored Price bars chart. The idea is the higher time frame will, should, may keep me in the trade till the ferkin around on the lower time frame chart has ended and the price resumed its direction. Of course the price might break down and one's missed an earlier and more profitable Entry while waiting to see if the higher time frame also changed signals. It means one's demned if one does, demned if one doesn't trade the lower time frame, and, that losses are part of the Signals Trading Method, above and beyond any errors the trader may make.
Remember the chart you pasted in the original starting post? You had all those "conditions" bracketed all nice and neat, marked up and whatever. Well, what does that tell you is going to happen in the future? On the very right side of your chart, did you take an entry and know what was going to happen? Closing a losing trade immediately, over and over and over again, is going to do one thing and one thing only... Wipe out your account. Of course, that depends on one's definition of "immediate". 1 tic? 3? 10? What is an immediate loser? And for the record...Who the hell wants a system that "generates a 'lot' of losses"? Dun' give a shit what your trading plan is...I don't want to take a lot of losses, big or small. You may wish to rethink your ideas before offering the system's prowess to the community-at-large. But then again, if it works for you and you are profitable, kudos!
Hi Overnight, thanks for your comments and observations. The thread should probably be in the Journals forum since I'm doing so much testing to find out what works. Tell us about your trading system/method Overnight, how are trading decisions made ? how many Wins and Losses do you have in a day, week, month ? ....................... There's also the Entry Price to consider. I don't know but think it's likely I might have to give up up to one point to get in, filled - haven't been checking to confirm what's going on. But that isn't a reflection of the Method, rather how the Price may be moving at any particular moment. This Method also requires constant attention otherwise I can miss a turn. I almost have the feeling I've never traded before, because continually examining and revising this Signals Method seems to raise questions I've never thought of before. Lost the CFibo I was using but the PFibos and the Regression Channels on the 60 are still holding up, so the path the Price is taking isn't into the unknown, but more of a mapped route. My S&P 500 Projection Fibos: 161.8 ~ 2220.09 ~ ~ 200.0 ~ 2250.75 ~ ~ 261.8 ~ 2300.34 ~ ~ 361.8 ~ 2380.59 .
There are occasions when the higher tf chart 'suggests' I can stay in the trade. But, and I have to But, there are other occasions when it's the lower tf that should paid attention to - traded. Just Closed a demo trade based on the lower tf signal. The higher tf registered the price dip with the T3 going Blue on the space between 2 Price Bars, while the lower tf had 2 PBs change color as well as the gls crossing. So I'm going back again to the idea that most signals are going to Have to be taken, but what else can one expect when the charts are following the Price so closely. A lot of the S&P Price movement appears to me to be one and two point moves, one point, Correction then one point from the Correction Low and so on. The Price's movement seems to have that appearance while the EURUSD by comparison has longer inter trends within the longer trend. I wonder if the Price Action of the S&P is a result of the trading action of the500 stocks in the Index, or it's just a matter of the ES is being traded for single points because of the $50 value of the point. current Correction Fibo I'm using: 2239.750 ~ 2251.500 .
The Talking Heads refer to this rally as the 'Trump Rally', later the'Trump Bump. As far as I'm concerned, after the Election result - 'Sell on rumour Buy on news' when this rally began and has turned into the the 'Fed's Rate Rally' - 'Buy on rumour Sell on news', and not withstanding those who contend the 1/4 point increase is already 'priced in' - who knows by whom - there should be, might be, could be a Correction following Ms Yellen's annoucement. meanwhile . . . setting up a new March contract Workspace I discovered the lower tf signals' chart was a virtual 5sec chart, which kinda explains why there were so many small signals. So I've changed back to a Time based method, tho one that uses signals, and . . . Dyno tested my 'NEW' Signal Method, I'll admit to a couple of rogue trades BUT, BUT, anyway there Was a losing trade tho I don't know how it got in there, anyway, the results of trading one contract starting at today's Opening and final Close at 11:05pm pst: Total Trades: 14 Gross Profit: $1,106.00 Gross Loss: $-87.00 Commissions: $56.00 Net Profit: $1,019.00 now if the Market provides those sort of points and I can trade for them every day . . . My March 2017 PFibos: 200.0 ~ 2233.25 . . . 261.8 ~ 2282.84 . . . 300.0 ~ 2313.60 . . . 361.8 ~ 2363.09 .
In this environment, I'd rather trade smaller size for larger moves than vice versa. In the old days when the markets had more consistent movement, momentum and enabled you to trail a stop fast, you could probably trade the micro time frame's more confidently. But nowadays, the character of the market changes so much (day to day, week to week), that you will be constantly re-adjusting your parameters.
Well That's for sure ! I didn't think about it in advance and it's what I've been learning about this past week. What it seems to boil down to is finding that best average of signalling that's able to take advantage of what the market's doing/offering at any particular time that one's willing to trade. What's tempting is the $50 per point that tickles every gambler's conciousness. The alternate to gamble-trading is Day-to-Day/s-to-Weeks trading: from the Fri Dec 2 C of 2186.75 to the Tue Dec 13 C of 2267.50 = 80.75 x $50 = $4,037.50 One o/n contract requires $4,750 unless, one Closes prior to the Daily Close and re-enters the Market when it re-opens. If so, one's then able to double, in theory, 10 times during that trend. ............................................... My current CFibo: 2227.750 2273.000 .
1 min chart trading can only be done if you're using higher time frames to base your trades or are hft