<B>Quote from romik: As far as I am concerned it's heading for a re-test of 15 & a breakout, I have not idea on when 15 will become support (edited), just faith</B> Very similar setup in gold occurred at the 692-700 area which was massive resistance for about the last year or so. With silver decisively breaking out over the 14.50-15 zone, it will be very difficult to see sub-15 prices on silver now from this point forward imo. Once silver hits the upper 20's/low 30s, then the elevator back down would only take the price back to $18-20 in my view....
Looking for alternative views. Not a native English speaker, so sorry if something is unclear. (Norwegian) I have had a set-up in mind in silver for almost a year: the breakout from the year long consolidation pattern. For the past week I have been timing a re-entry after the breakout and what I consider to be a short-term top. I always expected silver to test the 14-14,40 area, and was even willing to take a short term move below 14. I don't think it was to be expected that the support at 15 should hold, and got my position two days ago. At that point, my interpretation was that both gold and silver broke out of a short-term falling wedge formation: a typical correctional pattern. The support from the year-old triangle pattern is currently at approx. 14,3-14,4. The rising trendline from the secondary leg is at 14,2-14,25. There are other horizontal support levels in this area as well. The retrace of the secondary leg (from the 16,2 top) is healthy in depth, though a little steep. When you look at the two previous major breakouts from similar consolidation patterns, the re-test was of a downward support-line, not a horizontal line from the prior top, and silver also has had a tendency to overshoot. Maybe I'm wrong on this, but I feel that 14-14,4 should provide a major support area, and that speculative long-positions ca be placed with a very good risk/reward ratio at these levels, with a stop loss if 14 falls Planning to scale up my position somewhat if/when silver rises above 15,10, adjusting trailing stop for parts of the original position at the same time. (Note: I plan to stay in the position for weeks/months, disregarding short-term noise)
I'm long silver... not caring about the up dollar down dollar moves.... looking for $25 an oz to offset my crappy US dollar holdings...
rollover week in metals ... expect more volatility as people rollover their positions to MAR 2008 from DEC 2007
You know what, I really don't care about the short term volatility any more. I simply do not want to be left behind when the major move comes. I am taking 1 friggin' contract of ZIH8 and I'm just gonna hold it through thick and thin until FND. Let the Comex bastards do whatever they want!
I completely understand your frustration, but are you really sure about that? I mean there seems to be alot of manipulation in the metals. Its extremely dissapointing. I do not care about gold as much as I care about silver. Silver should have been resuming its run after it broke the $16 mark. So dissappointing to see it back at the low $14. 14.10 looks like a significant support to me, dont you think?
I really don't know anymore from a short-term standpoint. What I do know is that both silver and gold should move higher until at least April/May '08. If I am wrong, I do have a stop at a predefined area to avoid any significant losses. A close under 14 would likely call it for me on this trade. I think that the suppression that is occurring across the energy and metals complex is Fed sponsored to contain these so called inflation barometers in order to pump more liquidity into the system. This is the only way to keep a bid under the DX without causing a stampede into anti-dollar instruments. Just as intervention has been occurring in the bond market for years, the same has been happening in the metals. I do trade index equity futures as well so I am not completely reliant on only the metals...
Follow-up: Scaled down a bit, in order better to be handle a whip sub-14. The case - as defined by me - will still be intact. Position size now reflecting the amount of profit from my first trade on breakout (14-15,6) I am willing to risk. Have been to greedy on prior occasions, increasing position size to rapidly in response to initial success, thereby ending up on square one and failing to get a major move: (This was the case in USDNOK). I also consider the violation of the secondary (11,5-16) trendline a little red flag. Scaling up from now on only on continuation confirmation, possibly on a very clear signal in the hour chart. To make it clear: I do noe want silver below the medium term support at approx 13,8-13,9. This will be a 50% retrace of the secondary leg. I consider the support area to be around 14,1-14,4, but the major support (in my mind) is the downward signal line of the year long triangle pattern: This line obviously is falling slightly day by day