OK, first of all "doesn't launch" and "delayed" are 2 different outcomes. Nobody knows for sure where the price of any given commodity is heading, it is based on probability, we are all speculators here in the futures business. The main point that you are missing is this: Gold inventories - ~ 5 billion ounces Silver inventories - ~ 1 billion ounces If you look at the prices of the two commodities here is what you'll get. World Gold inventories current value - ~$3 trillion World Silver inventories current value - ~$10.3 billion What you have to understand is that while gold is added to the inventories, silver is the opposite, because of the DEFICIT factor. That means that world silver value represents ~1/3 of 1% of world gold valuation. Does the above tell you anything?
It just tells me that nobody really cares right now except a handful of folks who trade it or need silver for industrial/jewellery purposes. And since silver is not foreign to millions of possible traders, it says nobody really cares. Kind of like the naked short selling threads - maybe OSTK should be a $90 stock but it aint happening today. Good luck to your silver long if silver etf doesnt show up when you expect to buy your silver.
throw a dead fish over your shoulder and your likely to hit somebody with an silver etf opinion.... me thinks it wont happen....market is too tiny
The funny thing is, if the ETF is approved the silver bulls predict a massive squeeze as investment dollars take physical out of the market creating a huge shortage. If the ETF is not approved, the reasoning will be that this just goes to show there is already a massive shortage of silver and the price will soar anyways. A comfortable if costly attitude to hold.
the model for this was the Buffet purchase in the '90's..... spike up and then slowly down... so here we sit............
Metals futures stage broad rally in afternoon dealings Friday, March 17, 2006 5:31:49 PM http://www.afxpress.com SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- April gold climbed 40 cents to $555.80 an ounce in afternoon trading, reversing earlier weakness that sent prices to a low of $552.50. Prices were on track to post a gain of more than $14 for the week. May silver climbed to $10.46 an ounce, its highest level since least 1984. It was last up 5.8 cents at $10.40, trading over 4% above last Friday's close. And May copper soared 9.35 cents, or 4.1%, to a contract high of $2.359 a pound following a rise in February U.S. industrial output This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com << More Forex News
Silver is the single best conductor of electricity of all elements. It is an excellent heat conductor and has unique antistatic properties. A explosive market for silver is in the area of medical applications including antibacterial textiles. Its used as currency, jewlerry, and in photography. Other applications include electronics, telecommunications, water purification, solar energy, mirrors & coatings and batteries to name just a few. You could shoot a vampire with it too and i notice there are a few on this thread lol.... Annual supply is say 500-800 million ounces from mine production , another 150-200 million ounces from silver scrap recycling. At present, central bank holdings of silver are just about nil with only an estimated 150 million ounces in holdings. Exchanges such as COMEX hold i think like 150-250 million ounces of silver. Annual silver demand is in the range of 900 million ounces (2002 date i think is last time i looked) resulting in an annual deficit ranging from 100 to 300 million ounces. This shortfall is more pronounced in the last few years as assholes like you and i buy futures, certificates, etc... Over the last decade - the shortfall in supply has been made up by above ground inventories that are now becoming quite depleted. There is only 500 million ounces above ground - so even if they scrounge up another 500 million ounces - it makes a billion ounces * 10$ =10 billion dollars of TOTAL SUPPLY above ground. The white house spends roughly ten billion a day on bullets ( i made that up - but a good comparison i read on kitco was that americans buy 15 billion dollars of pet food in a year). As an aside - Buffet bought 130 million mother fucking ounces in 1997-98 aroun 5-6 bucks i think. Guys unreal. Silver demand roughly : 30 percent from jewelry, 40 percent from industrial fabrication 25 percent from photography and 5 percent from coinage. Photography demand for silver represents approximately 20 to 25 percent of total silver demand. Much of the third world cannot afford digital cameras or the computers to download the pictures. Until then, traditional camera photography will remain maintaining a strong demand for silver for the foreseeable future. Silver demand from photography is actually growing modestly with total photography silver demand in the area of 150-250 million ounces million ounces a year. Historically, silver has been valued at 1/16th the value of gold. Today, this ratio is off the map with silver tremendoulsy undervalued at a ratio of like 1/60th the price of gold assuming a 600 oz which should happen by monday at latest lol.... Silver, in todays value of dollars - was actually worth almost $1000 in 1447. No shit. Don't quote me on all these numbers as they are out of my head - and are from research i did a while back in 2002-2003. But they are all more or less in the ballpark to demonstrate the clear picture of the supply /demand issue at play here. Coupled with the fact that there is a lot of short covering to be done - and just the global monetart situ - it could get interesting. Anyway - I love this trade. I wish I had bigger gonads to really take a shot on this one. i think it makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons . Downside is pretty limited from what i can see and it's exciting to think about a ridiculous upside that makes the returns from an investment in Google (sergey and bert or whatever the other muppets name is ) look like a GIC. This is a great thread. The tom butler interview was interesting. Good post l8r
My view on this if ETFs are approved all positional shorts get f...ed very quickly, before they can even get out of their positions. I am simply trying to let you guys shorting silver know that you now, like at no time before, have to be extremely careful. People that understand that silver is way under priced and believe in the manipulation theory I am sure will agree with me on this one. And if you hope that your stops will get you out of your positions, you have to know that in potential price explosion, no broker will guarantee stopping you at your prices. You can compare this to trading index futures prior to FOMC announcement, only this is more serious stuff with incredible outcome if ETFs are approved.