$ Silver $

thanks vm for your comments cutten. i agree completely. i can admit that part of my motivation to take the risk has been strong desire not to feel left out, at least as much as the various fundamental reasons for strong metal. the main reason i like long metal is that it's an opportunity to participate in a long liquidity bubble where most exogenous shocks are in the same direction as the speculative trend. where else does that general relationship exist today? maybe a lot of places, but none that i'm aware of

i'm not going to pretend i've gotten involved in silver with all or even most of its behaviour understood. as unfortunate as losing good paper p&l was, my original plan for that attempt got me out unscathed, though nothing to be proud of in a risk adjusted sense. given the chance, i'll be a lot more articulate with exits this round, and more mindful of historical vol ranges, res levels, expiration, and margin changes

shooting from the hip without a full awareness is amateurish, no argument there

re holding thru 20-30% selloffs in the context of my view on metal, i agree with you fully and will try to do so if i can accomplish the MFE to allow it without taking any net neg p&l. maybe thats asking a lot or missing the point

 

all I can say is ...

how come they dump the market whenever

I get ready to pull the trigger
to sell my "junk" silver coins !

 

Silver ETF already at 32m oz and projected to grow to over 100m.

While warehouse stocks only 124m oz.
http://www.nymex.com/sil_fut_wareho.aspx

Where will all the supply for the ETF come from?

 

I'm not aware that any western central bank has any holdings of silver. Do you have data on this?

 

this week or next either silver explodes to the upside or gold comes back to earth

maybe I will go high bid a few times on the ETF

( SLV ) and see if I can get the comex boys to bid up the futures

 

Seth,

In your humble opinion where do you see silver in 2-5 years? 3- 6 months?

Thanks

 

I was picking thru something recently and as I recall, India's CB has 60 mill. oz. that they are trying (going) to sell....

maybe it was mentioned on mineweb........

 

Thanks for that mineweb, looks like a useful site.

Also on mineweb was mentioned that the Indian CB already sold 32m oz last year. Seems they are rapidly running out of inventory, so no more supplies coming from there either.

And: "US government inventories are now very low and that the People’s Bank of China sold off its holdings during the period 2000 to 2004. Other central banks hold almost 17 million ounces of silver equivalent to roughly one week’s demand..."

 

SLV is really screwing up the status quo.....

1 year/ 3 month lease rate spreads are widening fast..backwardation is the nightmare similar to copper..I wonder if it will stick?

 

I have been suprised by july
silver not getting above

$15.00 let alone $14.50 tonight with gold

still above $700 in june futures

on short term basis ... I guess it looks
like they are tracking one another though