Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Cutten, Apr 1, 2004.

  1. Cutten


    Starting to get a bit parabolic here, with bullish media stories and record speculative long open-interest on COMEX, so I think it is wise to roll up a trailing stop on a portion - say half - of long positions. The way I like to do it is place a stop a bit below the low of the most recent major up day (>1 ATR upmove on cash silver on the day), and trigger the stop only if the market goes below it on a *closing* basis. So that would be around 7.85 at the moment. This will ensure that any reversal does not do too much damage before stopping out a good chunk of the position.

    For the longer-term, the nearest major support is around 7.45, and a weekly close below there would get me out of my position (although I may exit faster, depending on market action). I would also be looking to take partial profits into any really big sequence of spike up days.
  2. Cutten


    Sold half my position today @ 8.26, after the big spike up and panic buying, followed by the reversal and opening range breakout to the downside on the COMEX session. I'll keep the other half with a stop on close at 7.91 spot.

    Ideally I would have sold maybe 1/3-1/2 up in the 8.40s on the panic buying, but I wanted to see how the futures would open. I still think there is upside potential here, but the market is becoming very volatile, and I think the next panic buying high, if any, will be the current high for this move.

  3. Congrats, Cutten. You know that I'm short but all respect to your trading.
    I was adding to my short positions today @ 8.321 and 8.431 and covered @ 8.329 and 8.299. All in the minis. This can be a though ride on the short side.


  4. What a reversal, today. IMHO lots of shorts are being squeezed out now.
  5. Cutten


    I agree. The market is now in a high-risk phase, and a sharp reversal is much more likely than it has been for some time.
  6. I would consider this to be a crash in Silver going on right now. Down more than 12% within 2 days. Hope, no one was buying the high and is still long. IMHO Buffet, Gates and some locals made some nice cornering and now they are out or even short.