Silver to hit mid $60s by end of June

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by peilthetraveler, Apr 24, 2011.

  1. I originally thought it would hit $50 by june, but I'm correcting to mid $60s to low $70s.

    I love seeing you shorts and people on the sidelines pulling your hair out and saying "It cant keep going up!" While those of us that have done our due dilligence say "yes it can!"
  2. jasonjm


    you are correct, it could go to $100 for all anyone knows.....

    but a couple of things about silver

    1) there is no increasing industrial demand for it over last 10 decades. Demand will probably decrease due to current prices in fact.
    2) No increasing jewelry demand.
    3) cost to mine it is around is anywhere from $10 per ounce to zero if its being mined as a by-product of another metal, and each year more is being mined as prices increase.
    4) there is a 30+ year known supply of silver ready to be mined / recovered.

    so why is it going up? because speculators are buying it. I would love to know the supply of silver held by all speculators in the world? I bet its 5 year to 1 decade of silver supply.

    So - when silver starts going down, no one here has a legitimate reason to hold it any longer, the party will be over then.

    Now its a game of chicken, as to who can call the top / sell at the top.

    The higher this thing goes, the harder its going to fall.

    I have no positions, but watching with interest, I am hoping it goes much higher first, for an insane parabolic top.
  3. Larson

    Larson Guest

    Keep an eye on the gold/silver ratio. It might prove useful in the days ahead. This is a small market, but, yes, it looks like the cat is out of the bag, with no intentions of being put back in.
  4. You may be correct, however I will remind you that bulls revising price targets upwards after a long and strong trend is a classic warning sign of overconfidence/tunnel vision.

    At the very least, I would recommend shifting from outright longs to limited-risk call positions, or place a trailing stop to protect your open profits - with the market this extended there is a major risk of a large correction at any time. That way you maintain upside in case the spike keeps going, whilst limiting risk if a violent reversal occurs.
  5. 1) Industrial demand has increased 40% in the last 10 years. Not sure where you got your information. In fact between 2009 and 2010, industrial demand went from 400 million oz per year to 487 million oz per year for a 20% increase. So even though prices went from 14$ to $20 per oz in that time, we still saw that 20% increase.

    2)Jewelry demand has been stagnant in silver for the last 10 years averaging about 160-170 Moz per year, so even though no increase in demand, high prices are not decreasing demand.

    3) USA is the 7th largest silver mine producer in the world, yet only produced 38 million oz last year. Government sales totaled 44 million oz in 2010.

    4) Reminds me of that show Gold rush. There was an old man that said "you're all millionaires, you just gotta get it out of the ground"

    Remember that half of all silver mined each year is consumed, never to be recovered again.

    More info:

    Silver oxide batteries are beginning to replace lithium ion batters for environmental reasons.

    Silver is used in water purification and we all know the water is getting more and more dirty which requires more and more purification.

    Silver is used in plasma TVs and as the chinese are getting more rich, they will soon all want plasmas in their homes which will use ALOT of silver.

    thats just to name a few growing industrial uses.
  6. Like I said before...this run up IS the correction that we needed. Silver was suppressed for too many years. Its just finding its natural equilibrium now.
  7. and all the posts talk about silvers industrial use- now what about if it was considered money once again? i know i'd rather have a silver dollar than a stack of singles in whichever currency you desire. governments are abusing their fiscal privileges around the world, and it's hard to fabricate silver out of thin air like you can the dollar or the euro (and i really feel sorry for you if you trust china/russia/insert any emerging market currency here)
  8. dsss27


    19 April 11 5000 oz Silver COMEX COT:

    Non-Commercial Longs: 48,325
    Non-Commercial Shorts: 14,559
    NC Spreads : 27,451

    Commercial Longs : 34,043
    Commercial Shorts : 86,735

    Total Longs : 109,819
    Total Shorts : 128,745

    Total Longs-Shorts : -18,926 or -94.6 M oz or about -$4.5 B
    (COMEX only, for the period)

    See link to pdf for more on world supply and demand. Has some interesting insights to use to your advantage
  9. " The proposal which they passed was known as the Anti-dog-eat-dog rule. When they voted for it, the members of the National Alliance of Railroads sat in a large hall in the deepening twilight of a late autumn evening and did not look at one another.
    The National Alliance of Railroads was an organization formed, it was claimed to protect the welfare of the railroad industry. This was to be achieved by developing methods of co-operation for a common purpose; this was to be achieved by the pledge of every member to subordinate his own interests to those of the industry as a whole; the interest of the industry as a whole were to be determined by a majority vote, and every member was committed to abide by any decision the majority chose to make"
    ---------------------------------------------------------------Atlas Shrugged----

    Do you really believe the OBAMA committee to look into "OIL SPECULATION" is going to be a committee only looking into OIL?
    What about Silver Speculation, Gold Speculation, Wheat, Rice, ETC?

    Does not our US GOVERNMENT want to protect is citizens from the Evil Speculator? Soon, items that require silver will sky rocket because the cost of manufacturing those items will be passed on to the consumer. The COMMON GOOD will not in the best interest of the Silver Speculators. Therefore, OBAMA and DC will have to gain public support to rectify this unjust and evil action called SPECULATION.

    The clock is ticking and most of you fools voted for him.
  10. The party is going strong now. Best leave the party while its still hot.

    I've sold 2/3 of my position.

    The 1/3 that's left I'll leave with a trailing stop at $46. I believe silver will reach mid to high 50s but I don't want to be there when everybody's selling and have my orders not get filled.
    #10     Apr 28, 2011