Silver is likely now in a bearish medium-term/long-term trend. As such, significant rallies to resistance levels should be used as shorting or put-buying opportunities (standard bear trend trading tactics). With a 2 day rally from $33 to 38.6, we are probably coming close in time to another shorting opportunity. IMO the upside in silver is likely to be to $39-43. Potential downside is new lows, possibly much lower lows (e.g. mid 20s, or even $20). Thus you are risking 10-15% for a 25-50% gain, depending on entry and exit points. Due to the sharp nature of bear market rallies, I would either scale in to shorts, or start with bearish options bets and only add outright shorts as the price exceeds $40. I would not put on an entire short position at $39. If I am right, the price should not really go above $45 in any significant or sustained way, and should in fact roll over and turn back lower fairly soon, within a week or two. A further point is that IV is still elevated and likely to come in further as volatility declines along with speculative participation. I therefore don't recommend buying and holding outright put positions, time decay and vol crush could cause problems. Selling calls or bull call spreads may help to offset the time decay in any long put positions you put on.