the action of the last few days was purely an exercise in the expiration. happens often on exipry days. here is an excellent read i saw. worth your time if you like silver. http://seekingalpha.com/article/265...-screaming-about-a-buy-side-silver-conspiracy
Silver's a good buy now. As in today. Stop at 44.40$. Look at gold. Peil is right. Monetary and economic conditions all point to long-term debasement. If Silver closes below 44.60$ on the daily, we could see a temporary sell-off. Otherwise, bull still in effect.
Good call, I've been holding physical for awhile, but also playing with the ETF. Got completely shaken out of my ETF position, obviously folly on my part that Bullet Ben would ever make a hawkish insinuation. Now, it's off to the races again, unreal.
Thanks. That sell-off was devastating. Happens to the best of us. For investors, an easy way to time reversals is higher lows (for bull trends) and lower highs (for bear trends) or a trendline break off a longer-term chart (1hr, 4hr, daily etc). If you look on the daily SLV, it formed a nice higher low after the bearish englufing candle. The hard part is direction. If you can figure that out, the market provides lots of opportunity to lever up and pyramid.
The best thing I ever did was buy the physical quite awhile ago. Since it's pretty damn illiquid to actually trade that back and forth, it's forced me to simply sit on it and benefit from the rally. Silver, no matter which chart I look at, is definitely in a parabolic phase, YET, it can't be discounted due to all of the physical demand behind it. Heck, I remember back in January when it was trading in the mid 20's and I was a bit nervous of a sell-off, it's close to doubled since then. Meanwhile, we have a contingent of people around here who blow it all off as if it's simply another bubble with no rationale behind it. The same people who worship at the Fed altar. I'll never understand the mindset of these simpletons.
Depending on any given credit bubble, hot money favors particular assets. Now, it's precious metals and commodities. World-wide, the game is debasement. Western sovereigns are boxed-in and it's a race to the bottom. Take the foot off the gas and it's 2008 all over again. People don't understand the FED is merely an extension of the private banking system intended to operate for their profit. The Government takes its kickbacks in the form of low-rates and monetized Tbills and it's all good. It's an alignment of the stars. There's so much riding on this death spiral, there's no other choice. The debt-financed economy, the "wealth effect", real estate prices, congress and the FED owned by the very insolvent banks that created this mess, exploding entitlements, intractable public sector unions, higher yields on the long end, blah blah. The list is a mile long. We're beyond a nation of debt. We're a culture of debt. A people addicted to debt. And it's not just America, but much of Europe, as well. So here we are. Credit conditions are improving. I have no idea when we go back to baseline on unemployment, or if that's even possible given offshoring. But credit is improving. Then we've got a 14 Trillion dollar problem with an adjustable teaser rate attached, and that spells doom. It's done. There's no way in hell America - let alone much of Western Europe - can finance itself under a 5% rate environment. Interest payments would consume over half the budget, not withstanding blowing apart much of the FIRE-based economy. And then there's the relentless push towards the SDR, SDR commodity settlement and treasury market. Fundamentally, it's a perfect trade. SLV easy 100$. Gold easy 3K. I think it will go much, much higher. This is like shorting MBS in '08 or going long the builders in '05. The dollar is toast. As if all that other shit wasn't enough, our political leaders are pushing the dollar off a cliff. Readying the SDR, badmouthing the dollar, and when that goes, metals and commodities could easily triple. Maybe even quadruple. The economic consequences of a loss of reserve status will be absolutely horrific. It's possible when the dollar goes, the FED will continue to print just to stave off the eventual deflationary collapse. I mean, the dollar could go to absolute toilet paper. I think you're right about the physical. Rounds are great. Halves and quarters for gold. Halves, fulls and bars for silver. Some Austrians get it. Keynesians don't. They don't see the connect between money supply > assets.