we getting close to what would be a good top, one that I would try trade now need a few shorts to pile on then need silver to bust through $50, causing short covering, and a whole bunch of new longs to pile in then need silver to stall out at $55 to $60 that's where I would like to short.....
If SI goes negative, that would be one ugly candlestick. If long, I'd notice that much of the pressure the last few days was a result of options expiration coming up tomorrow. I'd also keep one eye on the Fed meeting. It could shift money flow. Spoke too soon...SI just went negative, but it's a long way till the close.
================== P tt; Well I agree with much of that; except i would note its mostly all the higher lows; higher closes, higher opens, higher gaps that dont want to close soon-LOL] These may help the uptrend. But frankly. i thought the countertrend trader in the derivatives dept [elite]made a good call in JAN; Silver took out the monthly low/JAN[bearish,short term, mo low on higher volume[bearish],[bearish short term] slammed thru 50 dma/bearish .[bearish short term] Long term silver trend is still up/fine; but gold, SPY maybe better buy. Citicorp looks more bearish[short, med &l ong term] than any of them Wisdom is profitable to direct. Not a prediction, simply probabilities..................................
I have been reading a lot of articles and comments about silver being in a long term bull market and that any dips need to be bought, that it will be just a blip in the long term up trend. Where were these articles two months ago? Three months ago? When silver was trading between $28-$32? Now that we are trading at $45, silver is suddenly on everyone's radar and is acknowledged as being in a long term bull market. I agree with the original poster, a short term top was hit on Monday, with the associated crazy volume, excitement, and retail participation. That top should hold for several months. In the meantime, I expect us to trade in a range from $38 to $48 for quite a while. The rate of ascent is just unsustainable in silver, but I also don't think we've seen the last of its rise. But it will take a long period of basing before it breaks $50. Perhaps 5-6 months. I know the fast money crowd expects $50 by Friday but past history says otherwise. Be careful on the long side of silver for the next few days, it looks like the pressure has been released after building for 2 months. It is now time for downside action.