Silver, Gold - Multi Year TOP Formed

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by ehsmama, May 23, 2006.

  1. ehsmama


    All indictions point to the fact that both Silver and Gold have had their multi-year Tops in past few weeks.
    Safest shorts available.
    Everyone is talking about $2000 price target for Gold and 125$ price target for Silver.
    Also, every fall is considered a buying opportunity.

    Every country is now launching Gold/silver fund.

    I think every rise needs to be shorted.
  2. mhashe


    I think the USD is near bottom, so you could be correct on gold topping.
  3. "All indictions..."


    care to name a few?
    And what is your timescale?

    Almost NOBODY buys the stuff. How many of your family or friends are presently in gold?

    How many of the general population are in gold?

    What proportion of funds have what proportion of investments in gold?

    And then of course there's debt, global currency devaluation, Chindia, Middle East, rising energy prices ...

    I see no indications of anything other than rising gold prices for the next two, three, five, ten years. $2000 gold? I can easily see that within such a timescale.

  4. just21


    Why do you see the dollar bottoming? Fed going to raise rates to defend the dollar?
  5. ehsmama


    I am justing drawing the parallels to the Tech bubble of 1999/2000 -
    1. Parabolic Rise

    2. analysts giving Obsence target (That are well justified by their stupid arguments). Mary Meeker etc. for Techs and Jim Rogers and Co. for Gold

    3. Mutual Funds and schemes being launched that specific to the particular theme (Tech then Gold/Silver now)

    Going by that parallel next 2-3 or even 5 years will pass before these commodities rise to lofty levels again.

    And I think these commodities will fall by at least 50% in the meantime.
  6. taking too big a bet either way right now will surely cause you pain, imo...

    certainly not "every rise needs to be shorted"... i think short term down is very possible, but personally i think in 2 years gold will be much higher.

    its dangerous to play either way, but short is even more dangerous, imo.
  7. yeah - your upside for a silver short is what.... 3-4$??? downside is..... 50-100-200-300-500? who knows....

    gold same...

    seems like a lot of risk...

    as for dollar.... that will decide the near term of both theses commodities... thats a crapshoot but trend is out of the us dollar for sure... euro rising.yen rising.yuan rising. cdn dollar rising. all flow out of usd so question is - who is buying usd????


  8. ehsmama:

    by the time the tech bubble popped the cab drivers and pizza delivery boys were talking about it. There were TV shows about it, the news and papers were full of it. Gold is *no where near* that level just now. I believe one day it will be but I also believe that is about 5 or 6 years away, may be more. I think a comparison to the tech bubble would put us more like '93, '94

    The short term may be down a bit, but to me that is a buying opportunity. The trend for PMs is up, the trend for the USD is down but I don't really concern myself with short term bumps and judders.

    4 to 5 years ... one of us is correct.

  9. wizard3


    Gold can easily come down for a while,but so what?
    Gold traded sideways for 25 years.
    In the old days (80s) the normal gold position was 5 per cent of the portfolio!
    just figure out with compound interest how much gold in the world would have to go into average portfolios to hedge against the kind of paper money risk we are facing!
    they can all say inflation is low,but they obviously dont do their own shopping at the Fed!
  10. ehsmama


    Are and still feeling nice and easy?
    #10     May 25, 2006