yeah, pretty much. because the dumb money is always the last in. i'm watching silver right now and even on the 1 min chart it's gone vertical. this cant last. it's too damned fast, and not a healthy trend. i want it to go up, really. i have a rather sizeable position in it now. i just want sustainability, and this is not sustainable.
I would agree in normal terms with the signs of a bubble. However, the macro fundamentals of the US debt and deficit situation along with QE policy looks like the same road taken by the romans, british and zimbabwe. When ordinary folks are selling USDs for commodities and metals then you know the game may be up. US debt has gone hockey stick straight up. This year we are adding 10% ($1.4T) to the debt alone to a new total of ~$16T by end of next year. I see only one way out of the situation and that is for the US to devalue massively....printing $$$$$$$ by Ben may do the trick. Without USD devaluation we will go BK.
so you're going the "its different this time" approach. alright, it's always possible. but i think its simply a pile on by speculators at this point and when ben can no longer print (or is no longer allowed to) a collapse of hunt brothers proportions is in order.
Yes, I think it is different this time. You have foreign governments diversifying away from USD to hold some gold. I don't see folks borrowing $$ to invest in gold like they did with the tech and housing bubbles. Also some folks are not looking for growth but simply to retain purchasing power.....financial insurance/hedge. Disclosure: Having said all that I don't own physical gold or silver. But I am trading GLD and SLV for momentum play. My insurance is to own forex but not USD.
foreign governments have been "divesting" away from the USD for a long, long time now. I personally remember 4 or 5 times in the last 5 years where the USD was ready to "die". oh no? what do you think margin is? i'd argue that everyone not taking delivery is looking for growth and gains.
This silver rally is debt-fueled and once debt becomes more expensive silver goes back to $5. End of story.