On another note I would like to add the following: If you look at S&P500 chart you will see that the decline has taken the index to November 05 range sharpish, look at all other metals, USD, interest rates, inflation, primary indicators, etc the list goes on and on. It's not looking bullish in most sectors. But I'll tell you this, IMO, if silver goes down to $7 range, moves around 7-9 range, that would be a great reversal signal and perhaps as early as 2007 the price will break through the recent highs. I will make a buy call once this happens.
I didn't understand this, unless you're referring to Butler's blather about silver being far more scarce than it is. If that were the case, I doubt Mr. Shill is so astute that he's the only guy on the entire planet who sees this vast conspiracy to depress silver prices, and somehow all of the dealers, traders, investors, speculators, widows and orphans missed it. A couple of "reasons" I've heard why gold and silver "have to" eventually take off to the upside are inflation and a dollar collapse. Hmmm, I wonder if the REAL threat is actually deflation? You know, the massive liquidation of mountains of debt by overextended companies, consumers and government at all levels? "Oh, but that's inflationary!" say the "experts". As usual, they're ignoring the historical record of the aftermath of periods of massive credit expansion. When a credit bubble pops, the need for liquidity becomes paramount. Folks sell (or try to sell) their stuff to raise cash. The Fed / government can't inflate their way out because it'll kill bonds and make borrowing to support the massive deficits even worse. (This assumes one believes in the supposed "power" of the Fed, which is a whole 'nother issue.) The dollar? Keep in mind it's game of relativity to all the other shitty paper money out there. Also, during a deflation, cash increases in value, because you can buy more stuff with the same dollar. My Dad is 88 and saw the 30's as a teenager. I think that was just a warm up to what's coming. Again, history indicates when the deflationary phase gets painful enough, the people will elect politicians who will say, "Screw the rich and the greedy speculators!" (We have a bunch of those types on board already.) Once the decision is made to allow bondholders to be destroyed, THEN inflation can take off. That's probably the time to invest in precious metals, if it's still legal to do so. Nah, that's all "impossible", right?
by the way ... there is a free lunch out there for anyone long SLV this afternoon ok ... not much of a free lunch ... maybe $50 or so but thats a nice meal !!!
exponential market move - would that be retracing back up the move from $50 or so? just a question and enjoy your well thought out posts. i think the govt tries to inflate as it has been doing. obligations are too large to "allow" deflation; maybe they cant print their way to prosperity and the debt bubble implodes and we deflate. an ounce of gold still buys a good suit (not really good suit) as it did decades a go... the same cant be said for $32 or wherever you wanna start the clock on FRNs? having some dough in PMs isnt such a horrible idea. i have owned CEF for many years and sold on the parabolic move, but i still have 1/2... dont have SLV or silver miners. as Rogers has said, commodity bull avg like 18 years - we may have a ways to go. luck!
Thanks for the kind words. I think one could make an argument that the silver low in 2001 satisfied the retracement from the 1980 high. As far as the retracement from the recent high, we'll have to see how the sentiment looks on future moves to new lows. That's my main filter for establishing long term positions / investments. Nice work lightening up. I think you'll be glad in the months to come, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty good rally anytime. If we do get a bounce and the sentiment gets bullish again as I expect, you may have another opportunity to lighten up more.
That was the call. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=72117&perpage=6&pagenumber=29 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1224211