Bot $20 puts (half the amount vs. calls) for $1.00 as a hedge, feel this stock will have a huge move up but bad earnings or guidance today and we may retest lows. Tomorrow could be a case study in short squeeze (hopefully).
The opposite is true. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1104850 Why Do Short Interest Levels Predict Stock Returns? "High levels of short interest predict negative abnormal returns [...] Therefore, our evidence suggests that short sellers act as specialized monitors who generate value-relevant information in the stock market."
I was going to buy some call for this, but for some weird reason, i clicked on the put and bought it. I didn't find out until this afternoon. I told myself there must be a reason so I stick with my mistake. Thanks god.
Ya guidance was only to the extent of 'a little more than this quarter'. So one can only assume my second example (with a $15 price target) is the name of the game. Something like $1.50 of earnings for 08, on 250-275M of revenues. They need to get this options compensation under control. They are too rapidly diluting. I was heavier on calls, so will take a small loss, but have some puts at 17.50 i picked up ...