We will see how European will react now. We have 2-3 weeks advantage to look and analyze. If we make mistake the outcome will be much worse 3/23, more then 50% down from top.Hard to predict, they should make weighted decision and move on.
I would like to say a gigantic 50% drop but we all know the fed would jump in and do another 8-10 trillion dollar stimulus package to backstop any further collapse. So I would lean on a 30-40% collapse. Easily drop below March 23rd lows in only days.
In my opinion, if we open state by state, step by step, slowly but surely, we should move on. Price is paid of, I can not imagine, what else we could do to make it even to point with no return. I’m more likely optimistic person, in that case I have very pessimistic view.
Chamath Palihapitiya says the market is ‘entirely divorced’ from economy and defends call to ban buybacks PUBLISHED WED, APR 22 20202:29 PM EDT https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/cha...economy-and-defends-call-to-ban-buybacks.html
We should open where we can, work through the summer and shut down in winter. That would be optimal. If we shut down now, and run out of food, we are really stuck when the winter makes the virus harder to control.
I think we have time and should find out how do not shut down since now. Even if vaccine and treatment will not exist. We have time.
%% So looks like TX, TN, GA + other states that never closed== are right to open up/stay up...……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
The Government and big businesses are just scared. The pressure is mounting. There is also the China agenda. Every action has its consequences. Is the Government and the economic controllers ready to sacrifice more life to save the falling economy? If yes, it might back fire after a short while.