Good point. I would add that the main reason we won't get any details from those 10 yr + sucessful traders is because they're not on ET. There are some here that are "old guys" who've succeeded quite well, but the vast majority of "making a living doing it" guys aren't posting on ET.
agreed. I could name 3 things that have worked for > 10 years. And I am sure other vere experienced screen traders could do the same. But who is going to give it away to anonymous posters on ET, especially newbies looking for freebies. Even if many traders GOT something that works, they still likely would use bad money/trade/portfolio management and blow up anyway. Some things you have to learn for yourself. As many have said, would you like to receive heart surgery from someone who is following a manual? or do you want someone who is qualified? Trading is not much different. It take a lot of energy & time and likely a few blowouts to appreciate how utterly complex trading, and the markets, are. Where is Ken Roberts when you need him?
Very well put. A mechanical system has to be considered in the overall context of the market environment/personality/trend. You can code that to some extent. But not to the extent that improves on an experienced brain. Engage brain. Think.
Depends how trend is defined. Also, the duration of profitability. The more "Technical" the strategy, the better. Simple is best. Necessary, even. Some definitions of trend aren't timeless. Subtle market changes - headfakes, LL then HH, range contractions - can screw up trendline breaks, traditional s and r, fibs, etc. Better to be a trend follower than trend forecaster. There is a difference.
It seems cabletrader is still running around here giving out advice on how to be consistently profitable and successful when he himself is not. Got to love it. He and his advice are the reason that most follow book taught trading methodology and still lose. If those people who are reading this want to learn how to scalp for two pips 50 times a day and still come out only marginally profitable, at best, then please do follow his advice. If on the other hand you want to learn how to set yourself apart from the losing herd and one day become a very profitable trader and money manager, then follow mine.
Oh give it a rest, I've already replied to your pathetic nonsense before, here. Please try not to disrupt this thread as well, people are having a sensible discussion here. Try replying to the points I made in my post if you're able to, instead of picking infantile ridiculous arguments all the time. Thanks
You make some interesting points, and I agree with many of them. I want to highlight one I disagree with, namely the concept of buying when others are panicking. To me, there are two aspects to this. First is getting out before the real panic begins. This seems to me to be the hallmark of the true winner. He is able to ride the crazy train but knows how to sense the right moment to get off. The average trader sits tight, then faces the agonizing choice of what to do, leading to the panic sell-offs when they all make a mad dash for the exits. Buying when others ae panicking however seems to me to be a different matter. Picking a spike bottom sounds far easier than it is in practice. Often there are very good reasons for a panic selloff. They don't resolve themselves overnight.
Don't you think there's a trade-off? On the one hand the strategy might not be as effective if it's automated, on the other hand automating removes emotion, personal bias, and discretion. Or maybe discretion is the reason why it works? Is that the 'context' element?
Brilliant post. This is exactly the process I went through to develop my own methodology. Started off trading conventionally, following all the "sound advice" that's out there, then I started noticing when I was afraid and would panic, and then I morphed my strategy to be able to take advantage of people like me. I've come to believe that people, and therefore markets, are a mix of logic and randomness, except when they panic, and then they become very predictable.