No offense taken whatsoever, and I am certain Lescor feels the same way. I should, however, point out that complacency is not a primary factor in my declining trading performance (and I suspect that Lescor would say the same). There are two issues at play here. First, there is the market environment (volatility specifically). Also, there is how the trader responds to a new environment (adapting, creating new strategies, evolving, etc). Personally, my trading has always tended to perform better in higher volatility environments. I've essentially traded the same way for a decade. During that time I've continually improved and refined my trading by using improved order routing methods and other small enhancements. However, I would say that my trading is 90-95%+ identical to how I traded a decade ago. During that time, I have seen my trading go from very good, to exceptional, back to good and now to what I'd describe as poor (low six figures). Note that this was all with roughly the same amount of annual effort and focus on my part. My point is that during that time, I have NOT continually evolved in my trading style. Instead, I have merely tweaked an already successful method to incrementally improve it. I have continued to tweak my methods over the past couple of years (of declining performance) and have no doubt that my trading strategy is more capable today that it has ever been in the past - for the same volatile conditions. If 2008 was repeated next year, I suspect that I'd be able to double my performance from that year. During the past decade, I have never needed to restart from the beginning and develop entirely new strategies. Currently, a restart from the beginning is probably warranted, assuming I want to profitably trade in a low volatility environment. Instead, I simply choose not to trade in this environment and will wait until conditions improve (if that occurs). In regards to complacency, I would argue that I have been no more or no less complacent that I have been during the last decade. My self described laziness is associated with my current refusal to invest substantial time and effort into creating new strategies for a low volatility environment. Note, however, that this is not a change for me, as I've not taken on this sort of major overhaul in the past 8+ years. To summarize, I don't believe that the change in my trading performance in recent years is due to complacency. Instead, I would say that the change in my trading performance is due to the changing market conditions and that my complacency may be preventing me from potentially reversing my profitability decline in this environment. Please note that this response is in no way to 'defend' myself again the word complacency. I'm simply trying to clarify that while I may be guilty of complacency and laziness, that this is not a large factor in my declining profitability in recent years. The primary cause has been the declining volatility of the markets.
The 2008 days will definitely return,but Im scared the FED is more competent in handling the markets more than ever.I think it was Bernanke who said the era of the great moderation has arrived. What I got from Dustin's statement is that he ignores most of the big caps and scans for the most volatile stocks that meet his criteria,which in the universe of 5000's of stocks is not hard to find.There may be liquidity concerns but its the best way to survive. good luck and thanks for the reply.
liquidity will be a big one,but no the biggest(assuming we are talking about intraday games). with constantly declining volume getting filled at your price is imo currently the biggest problem. don't forget that as the volume decline-spreads between bid and ask are getting bigger and bigger
I suspect that the FED has been spoiled by the amount of muscle thay have been able to use and, if goosing the market was their intent, how successful they have been. I believe we will find that the FED will be unable to "handle" the markets and that they will be wrong footed much of the time.
That is really considered worst profit ever if you're already hitting a million a year. But I believe there's much more worst than that.
I think a conclusion to be read from all the responses to my initial thread is that day trading has definitely become very difficult, due to the low volume, low volatility, HFT's and the central banks increasingly assert hold over all markets. Eric p I compare myself to you completely and understand what your saying. I too have now stopped myself out 2013. I wonder if the fed tapering will change anything and improve conditions.