Hopefully you understand that a bet on TZA is basically a bet that the overall market will fall. If you think that the market is going to drop, then hold it. If you think the market will rally, then sell it. Nobody can advise you as to what the market will do. But a good rule trading any instrument is: If in doubt, get out. And if you don't know precisely why you're in a trade, then you shouldn't have pulled the trigger in the first place.
When the Dow hits 14,500 later this year, TZA will probably be at 5. TZA could go to zero soon or later. TZA has been going down for years. Don't see a technical reason why it should suddenly reverse. The hard trades are to sell and then sell short. So they are probably the right trades.
I've never optimized my pairs strategy on TZA or TNA, but have on SDS and SSO but not with the recent variant I use on QID and QLD. The Pairs Strategy on the NDX derivatives QID and QLD I have uses a 7% drawdown as a stop and holds on average 5 daily bars, and that's a little more than 10% on a 3x instrument, so if you are down that far, I wouldn't say holding it where the market is at wouldn't make some money over your loss, but you've held it a little too long and negative compounding set in, so I doubt if you'll see it go to your breakeven price anytime soon. I'm saying you might get less loss if it rises, but it's probably not going to your breakeven and if it is the loss that worries you about when to get out, trust me, it's a losing trade, so being greedy and already way past the mark a normal trader would hold those for, you need to say something like another 5% and I'm out, or another 7% and I'm out. Like that. The 3x loss on those is not ever going to compound to your breakeven, so look for a slight pullback, then exit on higher lows or lower lows but that isn't easy to identify without automated programs. I think you should investigate a pairs strategy for yourself before trading those instruments any longer, but I'm just saying, my rule of thumb is 5-7% on 2x instruments 1.05^(3/2)-1 to 1.07^(3/2)-1 on 3's is at the point I say uncle. Being far past that, this exceeds those thresholds by a wide margin, and if you're gutsy you might hold them, but this market is in a bull trend, and if we don't cross new highs on NQ past the 2434 barrier 40 points away, then it will go down, but without systematic analysis of a system you've built and trust it's not advisable to keep holding that past a reasonable stop level similar to the magnitudes I've shared with you about my pairs system. I ask you, personally, what your thesis was when you made the trade? Technical? Fundamental opinion? Pure Spec? If it's Tech or Spec, your stop loss is the issue here. Fundamental opinion has no place in 3x instruments because they are trading vehicles, not investments.
Maybe just take half off now and hope the other half goes up for you. (But it probably won't.) Place a STOP LOSS on the other half, or look for a rally to jump out. (But you have probably been looking for a rally long enough!) The dumbest mistake newbies make, I would say from my own experience, is acting like a deer in the headlights when a sudden, unexpected loss hits. They let the loss grow bigger and bigger--hoping it will turn around--until they are psychologically and financially wiped out.
This is hilarious from a January 2012 noob. Scaling out is "inferior behaviour." Systems can scale in but not scale out. If you sell, sell everything, and wait for better opportunities, but you can't really know if they're better opportunities without a systematic analysis in place.
i have already read some of your posts and know that u r smart, so i guess i had better pay attention to the maestro! i had better learn to ALWAYS follow hard and fast rules like never scale out, otherwise i will be acting inferior