Sure, an inverse ETF should perform very well over the next 2-3 years. You must be nuts if you truly consider going long at current levels and during the economic shit show that we are all about to witness... Edit: I get the target investment horizon but it might take over 10 or so years to recover the next mega correction.
Your timing couldn't be any worse, put your cash in short-term CDs until the yield curve flips its inversion...as short rates(Fed Funds) are foretelling a bear market for the next few years...
Exactly. It's easy to look at backtests, but actually living through daily ups and downs is another story. In theory it looks great, but when you have to withdraw each month, gloom&doom in the media, portfolio shrinks up to -70%, years of no new high, inflation, taxes, unemployment goes up... is far from "safe investment". It's easy and safe only in a bull market and when you're adding monthly (in prosperous economic times when everyone has a job).
The risk that I see and that I have observed over the years is the large drawdown that occurs at or around the time you want/need to retire.When you don't have the luxury of waiting another 20 years for it to appreciate. OP's been clear about his stance so I'm not questioning it but IMO the best investment to bring returns on ones money and sleep well at night is real estate. Obviously that's poor advice if basic serviceability of a loan etc is an issue but ideally the investment property would be tenanted and perhaps negatively geared anyway.
It’s nice that you have this windfall. how you invest this will be determined on a few criteria: 1. your other income sources (need to dip into these funds) 2. Your tolerance for risk - Can you withstand a 40percent draw down emotionally and financially 3. Your financial needs today and expected needs in the future. (Tax and drawdown considerations) No one wants to lose money. How much upside are you willing to give up for that protection. It’s a quantitative answer. Rather than asking an anonymous forum of traders (who choose to trade actively and the majority of whom don’t have 300k) you should consider talking to a financial advisor.
it’s super easy actually to live through it when you are thirty. You don’t log into the account except for 1x a year to mark your net worth and you focus on your 10 year performance.
Just to comment on the bit in bold: Buffet isn't opposed to real estate investment.He has invested non passively over the years and still invests passively to this day.I would think that when his businesses are freehold then the real estate equity or appreciation line of the figures is of interest to him. The reason Munger sits alongside Buffet is largely due to real estate investment. Just saying that this is far from an open and shut decision for you.
A couple contrarian thoughts: Right now you can make over 5% in 1 month treasuries. No rush to buy anything. You might want to use that money so you can make max 401k or IRA contributions for a period of years. There might be major tax advantages therevthat easily justify spreading the purchases out over years. Dollar cost average into a brokerage account as well. I see a few problems with new blindy buying SPY. Historically, there was a lot less passive money that went into these companies simply for being in the index. You might have a company with garbage financials, or that is engaged in fraud but so long as it is in the index you'll be automatically buying it. The Ukrainian war showed us that they are willing to manipulate the content of indexes for political reasons, separate from the stated purpose of an index. When you own an index fund, someone can cause a fire-sale of your investment in company x just by dropping it from the index. You also have the potential issue of the fund taking your shares and voting them against your interest in pursuit of whatever goals they may have, net zero or whatever. I would consider taking the SPY, down selecting for say 50 companies, and directly holding the shares. Of course, this advice if worth exactly what you paid for it
I would advise, "not now". The market is likely too close to an important top. You've got plenty of time... no "need" to go risk-on at this time. Suggest waiting until the market has had a smashola where you can buy share on the cheap.