Should I cut position size on Monday?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by macintash, May 19, 2012.

  1. Invent another Ivory Tower metric that leads traders down the garden path of destruction, no doubt.
     
    #31     May 20, 2012
  2. i think i've seen great advice given based upon the input received.

    without knowing more about what you are doing, simply posting here asking a group of strangers what you should do further, i think the range of answers you've gotten could serve you well for the price paid.

    i was being honest with my reply. from your other thread, i have assumed you would like to keep your Sharpe ratio up. if you think volatility is going to rise and/or the market roll over here, what would you need to do to tweak your system and/or portfolio to keep up to your goals if this should happen?

    again, without knowing what you are actually doing, and since you are only offering us "cutting position size" as an option for change, there are really two choices here; pull the trigger or watch. since you are posting about it here, that says enough about your concern, that's the only real data point we have to go on.
     
    #32     May 20, 2012
  3. TD80

    TD80

    I don't understand how someone who is talking about maintaining Sharpe > 4+ is coming to us asking what they should do in terms of risk management/position sizing in what is frankly a minor "blip" in terms of market volatility.

    2008 makes this pullback look like a gentle pat on the head. Were you actively trading in 2008? Anyone who survived that (I mean didn't blow up, not just start over from scratch) would:

    A. Not be pondering/expecting Sharpe ratios > 4 for any extended period of time unless you are selling convexity or you have a structural/arb/hft advantage.

    B. Wouldn't be coming on here asking us what to do when they see volty lighting up (ever so slightly), they would already know what to do based on the trading 2008 - the worst market environment in the last ~80 years.
     
    #33     May 21, 2012
  4. You are raising a legitimate point, will answer. Haven’t traded in 08. Found a specific edge last year; start using it consistently this year. So far this year Sharpe is over 6 (with 35%+ return), can I keep Sharpe 4 over for rest of yr? Definitely seems like a real possibility.
     
    #34     May 21, 2012
  5. Seems like my feeling about a market bounce was correct.
     
    #35     May 21, 2012
  6. Two days ago you were saying...

    "However since it seems market is very volatile, it makes it harder to perdict how good the hedge will hold, so I cut position size by 5% on Friday. The question is if I should become more aggressive on Monday and cut an additional 20 % in size."

    Now you were predicting a bounce?
     
    #36     May 21, 2012
  7. Look on my last post from yesterday afternoon (seems like you have a lot extra time, this is probably your sixth post here like “close 100% of your positions” etc.). In any case I cut 2% of my position today, will probably cut a little more tomorrow.
     
    #37     May 21, 2012
  8. I saw it. Like a weathervane in a hurricane, you covered every possible direction over the course of the weekend.

    Which furthers my original post - you should downsize your position to 0.

    Cheers.
     
    #38     May 21, 2012
  9. TD80

    TD80

    My (probably worthless) opinion is: Become obsessed with understanding what might break this edge you've found, how to detect it is breaking, and when (not if) it breaks (even if just temporarily), what is going to happen to you at X size when it breaks in a catastrophic way.

    Then position/operate according to the principle of last man standing rather than best risk/return metric. Or you can go right out on the bleeding edge of optimal F and take the opposite side of my opinion..to each his own.

     
    #39     May 22, 2012
  10. AK100

    AK100

    Too true.

    Also long-short strategies are never neutral, nor are they ever hedged. Sure, a long-short trade has generally taken the directional risk out of the market but you've swapped that risk for the risk or 2 shares moving against each other, and that risk can be very large as many have found out over the years.

    Long-short strategies can also offer false security in that because there's little risk taken on the outright market the player thinks his strategies are generally safe and low risk. Most of the time they are just that, until they're not....
     
    #40     May 22, 2012