They ARE manipulation. Among other effects, they both indirectly inflate profits with money which doesn't exists, because at some time you will have to give it back(if you don't, you get hyper-inflation). Thus you lower P/E ratios which will influence some kind of fundamental analysis which in turn will lead someone to buy.
That's what people said post 1987, post 2002, post 2009. Hell even post 1979. Come on guys, markets go through cycles. Volatility breathes in and out. Move over to the energy complex or to the metals or to currencies. Regarding the public, 95% of the public is NOT managing their money, it's with RIA's and mutual funds and yes, they are over hedging. Let's put this to the test. Why are most hedge funds under performing the indices? Why are most mutual funds? Why are most retail investors? RIAs? If it's all so easy to be long, why are they not making money? If the Fed raises all boats, why are there so many boats in the market getting killed? Can you guys answer any of these questions or are you just going to shout at the rain?
Mav, I don't want to be impolite. You seem like a decent guy. But seriously, on many different matters on this thread you've demonstrated that you don't know what you're talking about. Do you know anything at all about the hedge fund industry? They're supposed to be the smartest guys in the room. Not that they always are, but be a bit humble and don't think you always know better than them and everyone else. Take a look at returns for long/short hedge funds. This is and was a huge part of their industry. DEAD. Wanna know why? Correlations are all 1 so they can't extract any value from stock picking anymore. Fixed income and volatility trading hedge funds? DEAD. No movement anymore. So a lot of these guys basically end up just going long S&P so they can keep their investors from jumping ship. No one is making real or a bunch of alpha in this market because it's totally manipulated and so impossible to do so. Today looks fun. See? Don't tell me about little RBOB that you ran and found, or what bacon is trading at today. Everything on everyone's screen right now looks interesting. This is good. Should be like this more often. The market is only down 1.2% now after a 150%+ move over a few years, but I'm sure it's shocking and exciting to many people. That's because things have been totally repressed. That is my explanation. Now you can piss it away. You don't have the sense to hear anyone out but your own voice. Alpha. Do you know what alpha is? Can you distinguish between beta and alpha? Hedge funds and smart traders live for alpha. When the vix is so low there's no chance to trade around positions, buy them back cheaper, flip them around, finance them, etc. So, a lot of people are on strike. Which is smart. Not chasing beta wherever you can find it and trying to create an edge in 20 minutes. Is any of this getting through to you? Has anyone ever taught you anything about trading in your life?
The only real volatility I saw was in yen which was heavily manipulated by BOJ. As to the public,it's normal that after bearing losses with long positions on stocks, they stay away from them or seek insurance.Doesn't matter if they hedge with an advisor or they just don't buy anything. So the theory of "over-hedging" could simply mean they don't have positions (=maximum hedge)
3 days....oh wow. I wouldn't worry about this shutdown. In a day or two or 5 everything will be back to normal and markets will rally 3%+.... On top of that the lame pathetic talk about the debt ceiling is just all talk again. Do really really think they aren't going raise the debt ceiling AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN....you can guarantee that come October 17 the debt ceiling will be raised yet again. Talk about a fucking pathetic economy. Just wait until all this artificial growth comes to an end. If you think the last financial crisis was a crisis think again. This next one will be on a scale so large that nothing will fix it....QE was never the answer and will never be
Shots were fired at the white house and our national capital is now on lock down LITERALLY. Also, our Gov't is shut down economically! Look at all the craaaaaaaazy action we've seen in those awesome bonds that mav loves so much. 4 basis point range over the last 5 days! Guys, get out there. Make ALL that $$$$$$. There's opportunity everywhere. Bond traders especially. 2 basis point range today. Just lever up 2000x your normal limit for one tick. No problem. Are you a dolt? Can't you profit off of that? Just everyone let's all trade tesla starting today. That moved a few points. Figure out how to trade it in a few minutes. No problem. If you're a good trader, your edge will be huge - Because it moved a few points. Can't figure it out immediately? You suck. Tomorrow we'll trade GM. That might move 2% tomorrow. Don't know which way? Figure it out you imbeciles!
On Monday cotton futures might move 1%. Spend Sunday acquainting yourselves with all the fundamentals and technicals of the cotton market. Shouldn't take more than an hour or two. By then if you're any kind of decent trader you'll be able to out-trade all the guys who've been focused on cotton for decades. No problem.
Dude, there are moves everyday on every time frame. I'm sorry that you struggle to find them. But you probably waste more time bitching on ET then doing actual research so I'm not surprised. I see stocks that move 5% to 10% everyday, up and down. And I can't even remember the last trade I made based on fundamentals. Shit man, I had no idea you are Warren Buffet. Maybe you should sign up for Bone's spread trading course. His clients are doing well spreading futures. Oh wait, you might have to learn something new. Scratch that. Keep doing what your doing. And by that I mean posting drivel on ET.