<i>Would that mean that anyone going long any of those stocks would be effectively helping the terrorists in their quest for world domination? And if you did go long, knowing that it was helping finance the terrorists but, on balance, you figured it would be worth it to "help" the American Economy, could you ever sell your longs as a stock trader? Or must you hold indefinitely for the good of the country?</i> Very good point, Magna! MGB
The rationalizations on this thread are simply amazing. I don't care whether bin Laden has short interest in any stocks. That's not my argument. I simply said that for YOU to attempt to "cash in" on this tragedy is a disgrace. Period. It is a side point whether bin Laden or his associates are long or short. As I said earlier, either you see it as an ethical dilemma or you don't (by the way, there are lots of people that refuse to buy MO, and I understand where they are coming from). If you don't, then in my opinion you lack a developed sense of ethics and my arguments will make no difference to you. Any conclusion that you strongly believe, you will come up with mountains of bull to make yourself feel as if it is OK to benefit from the tragedy. So be it. If you can look yourself in the mirror, do what you have to do. I for one could not, so I'm staying out. I suppose that makes me a sucker. No problem. Wet
On another note, either the heavy short on the German market is a pure rumor, or bin Laden doesn't have much knowledge about financial markets (I think he actually knows a lot, with a $300m family fortune). Which is more profitable? (put yourself in bin Laden's shoes and you know the disaster is coming) a) use 2:1 margin (or whatever it is in Germany) to short stocks b) load up put options for equities (more leverage) c) load up short positions against US equidity index or the US Dollar on the currencies market? (the most leverage). By the way, if you fail this quiz, you shouldn't be trading on Monday anyway
By the way, MGB, your "argument" -- while I'm sure 90% of the posters here are in "yes man" type agreement -- is pretty bad and ineffective. It's called in philosophy a 'sorites' argument. And sorites arguments are invalid, though they LOOK persuasive to the naive. I don't even feel like bothering to explain how it works. Not worth it. In any event, like I said, if you can look yourself in the mirror, do what you gotta do. Maybe you can pack on the rationalizations and get through the day. Of course, I'm still curious whether if you owned the only water tower in a burning town whether you'd jack up the price of water too. Business is business, right? No one comes between me and my P&L. Wet
MGB, You are relentless. Let me add to Wet's point. First of all, I have lived up to what I believe so far. I don't smoke, and I believe that smoking is harmful. And I've never traded Philip Morris, even though I might have profited a bit from it had I shorted it when it was at the 50s. Now basically your argument is that since we can't easily draw the line between what is morally objectable (i. e., shorting airline and insurance stocks in this tragedy) and what is marginally so (i. e., MSFT making Flight Simulator software for the terrorists to use), then we might as well forget about it. But is it so? How about the following argument? Since it is hard to draw the line between what is pollution and what is not, we might as well forget about it. We can just dump sulphur dioxide, flurocarbons and nuclear waste anywhere we please. To hell with the environment. Do you accept this conclusion? Yes, I accept the fact that sometimes it's hard the line, but there are cases too obvious for us to ignore. And shorting insurance and airlines stocks in the aftermath of such human tragedy is a case in point. stockoptionist
Stockoptionist: Thanks for explaining what a "sorites" argument is. I just didn't have the patience. Wet
stockoptionist, I don't want to take up any more bandwidth, and others have made my points in greater detail. Seems like issue resolves to 2 things: (1) There isn't a lot a short-term trader can do that will result in net social good, due to the nature of the profession (it's a zero-sum game, and its effects do not have a simple relationship to trading profits). (2) You wouldn't know exactly what to do even if you could do something, since the bad guys are also traders, not bumps on a log. This may be frustrating, but there is a lot you can do to help without trying to do it through trading. Make some money on Monday and send it to those helping at the TWC site.
dkamp I don't think stockoptionist's arguments have anything at all to do with your (1) or (2). dozu? close the thread? what for? Wet
Think of this for a second, if you were in the towers when it collapsed, do you think anyone, except your family and friend will do anything about it? The COLD HARD TRUTH is, ultimately, your family will have to absorb the damage, both emotionally and financially, by themselve. Your death is just one of the many, and you will not get a "memory of celebrity_name_xxx", you are gone, bye . . . Yeah, my sister cried many times at the sight of the tragedy, even if she doesn't know anyone there, and I always consider her tears to be more precious than a mllion pearls. Yet her life will go on, and time will wash away everything. In the end, it is still you, only you, who can help yourself. Nothing on this planet is black and white, major events like this is how careers are defined, fates altered. The SOONER you realize this, the better. If the U.S. Government had the conscience to drop a pair of atomic bombs that destroyed the life of many many innocent civilians who happened to be at the wrong place and wrong time, then the WTC tragedy too should be considered as the price of the war. I repeat, nothing, and absolutely nothing is 100% right, and nothing is 100% wrong. If you want to be neutral in your biase, you must open your eyes and not believe everything the media tells you. I mourn for the victims, but I can not be fragile, as long as I am breathing I still have a career as a professional trader and I must act professionally, I still have a dream to pursue, a sister to love. I can not predict when will I see an plane crashing into my window, but I can predict with 100% accuracy that until it happens I am going to be doing what is best for my goals. Therefore, I am going to do what makes most sense for my interest, which is the only way to play the game, which is the only way to be professional. Every tragedy, like it or not, is an potential opportunity of profit. The June 4th TianAnMen Square incident gave me the long coveted green card, which completely changed my fate in this country. I have spend enough time watching CNN this week, it is over, it is history, I am looking at next week, as a potential breakout week, a week that may put me on the map for good. Ethics has NO place on a battlefield, and the financial market is a virtual battlefield that has winners and losers. Love is the greatest strength, I do what I do for a living, to make the life of those I love better, nothing and nothing else is under my concern. All of those memorials, American flags, blood donations, financial donations won't mean a thing to me if I was in that tower. I can not show weakness, I can not show mercy, once I am on the floor, I have the cold blood of an assasin, and there is only one priority, my P&L. Wet: I would gladly raise the water price but I am afraid I am going to suffer a LAPD beatdown as mobs rush me down at my house, if I can do it without any consequences I would. A lot of people screamed when gas stations increased gas prices not knowing that they were concerned they may not be able to get supply for a long long time. You have to do what is most important to you, and for me too much ethics can dull even the sharpest blade. The Black Monday, many many people's lives were ruined, yet there were traders who made their career with a big game, save your ethic for the real world, the stock market is nothing more than a game. Last but not least, I would like to remind each and everyone on this board that there is no telling what will happen to this market. We may sell-off then get stuck say Nasdaq 1200 for months, with little interest/volume/volatility in the market. If you thought summer was bad a month from now it may be worse. You won't be able to get a job easily either, think of everyone who didn't die within 10 square blocks of WTC, they are all out of jobs. It is going to a really bad situation, and I suggest make a killing if at all possible while you still can. Real Estate prices may decline in New York, and I may still be able to buy my own place at early 20's as I always wanted for a good price, but at this point I don't think beyond the next game, or at most next week. Even when the tower collapsed, the above paragraph entered my mind, because I was very very logical, either I was going to die, with another airplane hitting our area, which I won't be able to do anything about anyway, or I was going to live, and I have to think about the future possibilities. My friends, if they were dead, it already happened, if they weren't, they will be ok. What was important to me was what I had to do. That is my mentality, I don't know when I am going to die, and honestly, I don't care, you can't be afraid of something that you have no answer for, the same fear I had when the woman closest to my heart ended up as my sister. The WTC, as shocking as it was, was the second most painful day in my life. Yet, tommorrow, unless another plane crashes into my window, I know exactly what I have to do, what I should do, and no amount of preaching on this board will make me think twice . . . I am no hero, never pretended to be one, if I have the genie in a bottle and he can give me a choice between marrying the woman closest to my heart, having all the money in the world, immortality and keeping my youth forever, or "undo" everything that happened at the World Trade Center, I will take the first choice in a heart beat. Give yourself the same choices, ask yourself do you really care as much as you think you do, eventually, the wound in your heart right now will end up as a scar, a hard scar, and your life will go on. Why not tommorrow? The sooner, the better.