You're confused. By definition 'catalysts' are not ignored by the market. If the market doesn't react to a catalyst, then it is not a catalyst. The fundamental factors (excess liquidity, high real inflation) are often ignored for extended periods. I think you would agree it may take some catalyst to wake the market up to the underlying factors which you've already discussed. At least a catalyst will hasten recognition ... My point was a Bush appointment of Greenspan's successor, i.e. reduced relative confidence in the Fed's governorship, could prove a big time catalyst.
I don't have anything to add beyond the chart. I said two weeks 'cause when I posted we were experiencing some upside momentum that did correspond w/ seasonal strength. Obviously today we had a nice reversal ...
Someone knows a site with good information on Bond futures, like Chepest to deliver, basis, intraday news, etc.?
http://www.bondsonline.com/asp/news/composites.html http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1413,00.html http://www.econstats.com/r/r_am1.htm For starters ...
There's an old saying that technical traders don't make money because they don't believe their own charts. I've been doing that a lot lately. Should have gone long bonds on my last signal.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-2547.htm This author expects short rates to top around 2.75% for 2005. This versus the popular estimate of 3.5% I would tend to agree, since Fed just raised at a baby-step of 0.25% despite "hawkish" FOMC minutes about concerns over asset bubbles and tight spreads, which led some to believe they'd get more serious about it (start 0.5% hikes). So, Fed could stop its tightening at very low levels (under 3% STIRs), which correlates well with the theory that US actually has no intention to fight inflation and that US will try to inflate away a large portion of its debt.
This has ended up an almost perfect call for shorting the current fall in note prices. Guess nobody else on ET is shorting notes .... certainly must be a good sign.