Reasons to short: 1 - Supply: a) Is this a great country or what?? This EIA site has a graph where you can run some analysis tools, among which is a seasonality analysis where supplies for this year are compared to previous years. It shows that this year's supply is greater than any five years previous if you run the five year analysis. The figures themselves show we haven't had this much oil available since 1990. b) Is this a great country or what?? Part two: USGS releases new estimates for the Bakken formation out west: doubles its estimate for recoverable oil, and triples its estimate for recoverable natural gas. 2 - Price: The ratio of the oil price to the natural gas price prior to Jan 2009 was 7.36. Post this date the average is 18.04. This is down to the nat gas price coming down due to fracking. Nat gas is now a lot more popular as a fuel for electricity generation as a result, and its largely displaced oil. What this means is that this crazed price discrepancy is contributing to the above glut of supply. BTW, the heat ratio - BTUs per barrel of oil vs BTUs in mcfs of nat gas, is 5.75 (used fuel oil for this comparison), so the 7.36 pre 2009 ratio is pretty rational, since oil has more uses than gas, so it should trade at some sort of premium to the heat content. But the ratio currently in force seems nutty. It's certainly a record. I've never speculated in oil, so what I want to know is: what am I missing? Is this as monstrous a short as it appears?