1. "Everyone thought ...": How do you know that everyone one thought that? In fact what you wrote is incorrect, because at any point in time exactly 50% think market is going up, and 50% think the market is going down. 2. Stocks are just commodities: that is the reason why I am selling, because supply of stock would overpower demand for stock, and price will head down. BTW: I am NOT voting what I think the price should or should not be, but rather what the market is telling me about the likelyhood of the future price.
You did not read all today's transactions. You just need to learn how to time your entries, and manage money. With today closing price at 65.95, I am currently up $2.15. (which is $215 per 100 shares, and which requires only $3300 margin, which is more than 6.5% in 7 hours of trading).
MCD info for today: Low of day so far is 64 (lower than previous day). Profits so far on my short position are as I type this: $1.75+ $(66.38-64.38)=$3.75. So shorting so far has been the right decision despite all what has been written to the contrary on this thread. What do you guy think: should I just take my profits and step aside?
with MCD at $64.31 I took half off. Current profits for initial position size are now: realized profits: $1.75+ $(66.38-64.31)/2=$2.78. Entry of remaining position is at $66.38. Unrealized profits: $1.04 So far so good. It is behaving exactly as predicted.
More than 45 millions motivated sellers-shares are lining up at 65.85 and above to get out. Who are they? 1. 15 millions from yesterday 2. 15 million from Friday. 3. All buyer of today (estimated at 15 million) 4. All those who have been watching on the sideline and have a profit, and those who were waiting whether to short and may now be more tempted. Bottom line of this is that all of a sudden we should have a good supply of stock at 65.85 and above in the next few days. These things need time to clear, if it ever get cleared in the near future. The more time passes, the more time it will be needed to clear it. PS: Before someone write it, I am going write it. In all cases when I go "against the trend", and I have always been right so far, someone shows up and says you are just lucky. I have attempted this some 40 times, and in all cases I am declared as a lucky winners by someone. If luck is part of this, I hope that if one day I lose in my attempt someone would say it just bad luck against me.
riskfree, who cares if you're wrong sometimes and lose a few as long as you have stop loss in place. When a stock pulls as far from its SMAs as MCD did, it has to take a moment to breathe, and if you short it when the buying volume starts to dry up, you've got a pretty high probability trade on. As we footballers like to say, "Well played!"
NoDoji: 1. you are absolutely correct. I studied volume on Friday, and distribution was taking place at huge volume from 65.65 to 66. Normal trading day volume is a much lower than what was exchanged in just a two hours. So, I went in, and I knew that 66 to 67 will be a good future area of supply of stock. 2. I noticed your well timed trade on EUR/USD. We both nailed it at the top. I made more than 1000 pips on that baby in the down move, and played it during the topping and also at the bottom yesterday. I made on it more than 2000 pips in recent weeks. 3. A trade is usually good if I get insulted and a lot of people think it is absurd. I noticed that you also get insulted in a thread on EUR/USD, and only 1 or 2 other people agreed. RFT