I think you should apply surinotes strategy, otherwise you are just guessing at a top. Let the stock show you it's breaking down.
Insults can for sure be good contrarian indicators. In this case though I suspect you have someone who is just buying into the trend is your friend dogma without consideration of anything that actually relates to MCD.
Let me ask you this: would you buy MCD at $66? If $66 is expensive for you, where would you buy and when? If $66 is cheap, where do you expect to sell, and when?
ok, my bad. but why go against the trend. if you look at the chart someone posted on this page, it's making newer highs and higher lows. Why not short it after it's trend stops(i.e. lower high or LL) or there is a period of consolidation?
surinotes: 1. I am well aware of the type of analysis you made, and in fact you could improve it a bit for this example. I would short when the low of bar 1 is violated (which is higher than low of bar 3). 2. If you analysis is reliable, why don't we then apply at a lower time scale and have better entries? What makes the weekly bars any different than the other bars? I will post next some of my insights on trend, and against the trend trades. In addition, I am using other methods analyze price (my own methods).
Let me share with you an angle at trends. The major strength of a trend is that if you cannot time (or the price is not timeable), you essentially enter a trade with the trend, and wait for the wave to push you up. That is it! What you pay is the time/carry. The best trend traders are those who enter immediately before the push comes, and usually do it when price gets to a new-high (but they are not the best, the best enter before them) Now imagine the guy who enters after the push. That guy will have to wait a lot, and may become a bag holder if the trend reverses. There is another secret to all this. I am going to keep it close to me (at least for for the moment).
All of you reading this thread. Could you do me a favor. Please send a nice note to Brandonf. I read one of his threads, and I found it very human and touching, and I will appreciate it if you could join in thanking and wishing the best to Brandon. And in case you wonder, I do not know Brandon other than after paying attention to his posts this evering but I may have read some of his posts without particular attention in the past. Best wishes Brandonf!
if you think that you need to catch the whole move to make money, u should know that you r wrong. so basically you are saying that best traders predict a move and get in before?
Sorry that is not what I said. 1. I did not speak of the NEED of... to make money. 2. Best traders: not just get in before, but to get in the LAST moment before the big move starts. 3. Trend followers are making a prediction! Theyare predicting a continuation of the trend. Everyone who trades is predicting, whether they say it or not.