Shorting into FED

Discussion in 'Trading' started by EMRGLOBAL, Sep 21, 2011.

  1. Im shorting every little pop...even though not much off the the Qs and Spys.

    Nothing huge on size but trying an old play I did at Schonfeld back in the days.

    Will short ever intra day rally until about 10 mins before fed.

    If we sell off hard before the Fed Announcement...then I will cover.

    If we rally hard into the FED...will short heavy.

    If we rally hard after the fed....Will take my losses.

    If we sell off will hold short positions for a few days.

    Let the Games Begin!
  2. btw how you are trading is gambling.
    short is the right direction, you are correct there.

    the fed minutes actually have no matter in the direction thats going to happen today, It was already a SHORT Trend starting from early this week.
  3. benwm


    Can you elaborate on why you are so certain of selling the rallies? I am too much of a pansy to take positions into FOMC...
  4. S2007S


    I was going to put a trade on ahead of the fed announcement but would rather wait until 2:30 and see what direction the market moves in, by this afternoon the markets could be in a 2% move from where they are right this second.
  5. Un-fortuanlty, looks like I may be forced to cover if this sell off continues into the Fed decision.

    This is an odds play. The Fed is stuck with very little they can do.
    The market has priced in a Rate Cut. If they do not cut, market could sell hard today. If they do cut, market will rally but I can re-short next week as the majority of the FED move comes a few days after their decision.

    I have put positions on before Feds many many times...over 9 years in a row. I would say that I am forced out most of the time but as long as I follow my game plan, I tend to come out ok.

    It's not a big money making play.

    The big play is to catch the direction prior to the move after the announcement. That is where you have to be patient and wait for a direction.

    Keep in mind I shorted into the two mini rallies off the open, I have not put on a position since.

    Never, never never put on a position right before the decision!

    If you play it, play it off the open and manage the position.

    I'm not an expert, I make 99% of my money in the Private Equity Sales world.
  6. benwm,

    I am never certain. If I was Certain, I be a billionaire.

    I'm playing the odds I see.

    The market has rallied before the Fed the last few days.
    IMHO, they are pricing in a cut.
    Feds have no wiggle room. If they cut, market rallies but will sell hard in a few days because it shows, RECESSION! So, I can cover today take my loss and short into the Rallies of the next few days...if I leg in.

    If the Fed does not cut, then we should sell hard.

    If they stay unchanged with cut in future....NOise, chop for a day or two then we could sell off.

    either way you shape it, I see a Sell off.

    I could be wrong and if I am, I get out.
  7. Instead of gambling by taking punts and gambles on what they may do,
    why not just wait until they do whatever they do, let whatever move it causes happen,
    wait till that move is overdone in whatever direction it goes,
    and then make easy profit by catching the reversal snap-back to that overdone reaction?? :)
  8. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Just out of curiosity, what is it the Fed is going to "cut" anyway?
  9. Spanish,

    I can see that A: you do not trade. B:I doubt your involved in the Financial World in any capacity.

    Not being rude, I can just tell by your comments.

    1: Trading is gambling and any one that say's otherwise is a fool.
    2: Trading is based on odds. PERIOD! anyone that say's otherwise is a fool.
    4: The biggest task is to manage risk.
    3. Speculation- Please look up the definition.
    4. There are NEVER ANY EASY PROFITS.
    5: OVERDONE? Please, as if you could call the bottom or top.
    6: SNAP BACK? who says that the mark will come back.
    So, I suggest you stay as far away from the Financial World As possible.
  10. Spanish89....

    Nevermind, I see you trade Commodities. Either you'r a Piker trading with some lame Online Broker with very little capitalization or "pooled" monies. Which is hard to find for Comodities.

    Or you are the real deal, trading through a clearing firm, well capitalized.

    Commodities take a lot of capital as many "Firms" will not allow you to be under capitalized in those markets.

    Or your trading ETFs and calling your pre-positions based on the underlyer.
    #10     Sep 21, 2011