I'm wondering if I shorted index ETF of some country and then revolutions comes, communists take power, companies are nationalized and stockmarket are closed permanently. What happens with my position? Will I gain 100% of cost of ETF position?
I'd start worrying about more realistic problems if I were you ... and to answer your question, no it won't be 100% it will depend on supply and demand ...
Maybe you can day or swing trade like this, but it sounds like you have a longer term thesis. If so, stay with the long term trend. You would have to be nuts to short any country ETF in this market. If you want to short, wait for the storm.