Shorting for the long term almost always depends on fundamentals and market outlook. Shorting is very very risky in the long run as you are countering an upward bias market overall. Moreover, a significant profit of shorting comes from the early stage. In sum, I dont know if the risk-reward ratio favors shorting in the long run. But a ton of people vows for it...
I find that most of my trades (>70%) are initiated from the short side. I like the choppiness of the index futures so that trading primarily from the short side pays off. Not being greedy is the most important quality in being a one directional trader.
I short probably a third of the time. I am just more used to playing dip/bounces off the eminis and follow a daily watch list of about 20 stocks. Shorting is what kept me afloat when the bubble first popped. Took me a few months to get the hang of it. Now I just think of it as another trade.
Bill this is really a key thing that many of these beginning traders do not realize. The big money is made long term. Traders not only have to lose they bias toward the long side but also there uninformed bias toward short term trading.Often with seasonal spreads we are in for three months, pyramiding new highs every few weeks.
That statement is prejudicial. I agree that big money is made in the longterm, but not necessarily in one trade. One can make many short term trades over a long period of time and make just as much if not more money than another person making a single trade and holding for a long period of time. It doesn't matter how I may get to $100,000. If I can do it in one trade or if I can do it over 1000 trades.
There is proof. It is just that many students have not been trained in long-term trading. An early reference from about 75 years ago is Livermoreâs âReminiscences!â