Shortie's Pseudo-scientific Method Predicts SPY 104 as The Bottom

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Aug 19, 2011.

How Far is the Bottom?

  1. Within ~2%

    6 vote(s)
  2. 6-8% to go

    4 vote(s)
  3. >10% to go

    8 vote(s)
  4. >15% to go

    2 vote(s)
  5. >20% to go

    14 vote(s)
  1. [​IMG]

    Some of you may recall the mysterious AH "flash crash" on Oct-18 2010. I think the bottom for the current down move could happen to coincide with the level touched during that event. Adjusted for SPY dividends that level corresponds to ~ SPY 104.

    For those who are Long this means only 8% more of pain before the real rally.

    SPY Friday close 112.64

    Mark this post!
  2. 2008, I have always felt, was just the warm-up. No way of knowing when the main event is, of course, but now is as good a time as any. I voted greater 10% on the reasonable chance that this right now is the main event. If not, I still think we have a very good chance of a shock that produces, if only for a day, a fall to a level more than 10% lower than where we are now.
    Why? Trichet lowered rates in July of '08, in the teeth of the then-unfolding mortgage meltdown. He just did it again, in the teeth of the now-unfolding sovereign debt crisis.
    I have always maintained that if that man had a brain, he'd be an idiot. He seems to find a different way of proving it almost every day, but in this case, he repeated himself. Probably has something to do with his advancing age...
  3. I wanted to vote for 106. Which one is it on the vote list?

    Is it possible to broaden the discussion to address the possible leaders in the would be rally (leading sectors and industries)?
  4. Way to hold down the fort shorty:cool:
  5. imma guestimate 85
  6. [​IMG]
  7. or maybe 112.26 was the bottom
    we have to be flexible
  8. market is going lower, look at gold and bonds
  9. Market bottom will be around 65 however not for about 6 months.
    But it might just come earlier.....
  10. NEVER underestimate the FED.

    1057 or maybe 1066:D :D
    #10     Aug 20, 2011