Shortie's 10 Best Market Calls

Discussion in 'Journals' started by shortie, Dec 2, 2010.

How Many Calls Will Shortie Nail (Out of 10)?

  1. 10

    6 vote(s)
    13.0%
  2. 8

    3 vote(s)
    6.5%
  3. 6

    4 vote(s)
    8.7%
  4. 4

    6 vote(s)
    13.0%
  5. 2

    8 vote(s)
    17.4%
  6. 0

    19 vote(s)
    41.3%

  1. It was a nice trade.

    Are you overstaying? Why you do not lock some profits? Theta might start working against you? There is no theta hedging? To hedge theta would imply selling option premium.
     
    #81     Jun 28, 2011
  2. That is quantitive --- quantitive does not mean some fancy charts of greeks. Good money management, and patience!

    One other point: Have you tried to see what you would have gotten had you used IWM or QQQ instead of SPY.


    My impression is that if you used IWM or QQQ (in that order) you might have done even better. But volty on IWM, QQQ might be higher than in SPY, so I am not sure about the outcome.
     
    #82     Jun 28, 2011
  3. I feel that a risk to your position is a retreat to Bernanke's Line, with a lower volty (amplified with time left in options), and a little passge in time with costs some thetas. Long options are wasting assets (if you remove the intrinsic value).
     
    #83     Jun 28, 2011
  4. What would be the "best" way to play a bottom using VXX? Would buying puts, and selling higher strike calls (with more calls sold than puts bought) be a good thing?
     
    #84     Jun 28, 2011
  5. Bottom in the SPX? Nothing in VIX or var-swaps in general. Diminishing return in selling those here, akin to going long blue EDs at 99.

    Selling index puts, put spreads; long risk-reversals, long-delta flies, short calendars.
     
    #85     Jun 28, 2011
  6. Bailed out this morning, PL +370 (12% return on 100% risked) (note that ate ~>$70 in spreads round trip). During the trade SPY:GLD moved 3.5% in my direction after a small adverse movement.

    entry, exit and Bernanke line are illustrated in the chart.
    [​IMG]
     
    #86     Jun 29, 2011
  7. It is with great sadness I report that Bernanke Line is broken. See prior posts for explanation about THE LINE. Don't know what the implications are here.

    "If it is broken, you can't fix it"
    --Shortie Out

    [​IMG]
     
    #87     Jul 29, 2011
  8. The trade is back! Feel good about this one. Demo account trade. Ate the spread on all.

    Long SPY
    Short GLD
    Short VXX

    [​IMG]
     
    #88     Aug 18, 2011
  9. As previously, the rationale for the trade is that we are at the MAJOR support level (right now we are around 2009 bottom) so we should bounce from here. VXX Short is to compensate for volatility drop that will eat into SPY GLD option premium. VXX Short is also a trade in its own right since low volatility can be expected going forward (VIX ~40 is quiet extreme historically).

    The ratios and strikes have been picked by eye and not attempt was made to make them "scientifically correct" :)

    [​IMG]
     
    #89     Aug 18, 2011
  10. last week i added to VXX Short. Won't be adding to the position any more. Taking it up the butt after today. VXX is insane, so is GLD.

    [​IMG]
     
    #90     Aug 22, 2011