Shortie's 10 Best Market Calls

Discussion in 'Journals' started by shortie, Dec 2, 2010.

How Many Calls Will Shortie Nail (Out of 10)?

  1. 10

    6 vote(s)
    13.0%
  2. 8

    3 vote(s)
    6.5%
  3. 6

    4 vote(s)
    8.7%
  4. 4

    6 vote(s)
    13.0%
  5. 2

    8 vote(s)
    17.4%
  6. 0

    19 vote(s)
    41.3%
  1. wrong call! :D

    i do want to improve my discipline. i hope this journal will help me in that. let's see if i am able to enforce the discipline if the market keeps going against me.
     
    #31     Jan 3, 2011
  2. Qs high for today 56.05. i chose not to activate my mental stop because i still believe 54 is within reach and the market may not stay for a long time ~56. therefore i don't want to play stop-and-re-enter type of a scenario here.

    by now it is obvious that the trade is not a great one given the duration, 3% drawdonw and no profits (yet :) ). i will try to do better next time.

    QQQQ 55.75
     
    #32     Jan 7, 2011
  3. pspr

    pspr

    By "discipline" you mean the ability to continue to hold a position as it relentlessly moves against you? That's not discipline -- that's madness!
     
    #33     Jan 7, 2011
  4. as it moves against it i actually see more reasons for it to turn around. if i did not have those reasons then i would have exited.

    as it moves against me i ask the question whether i would have entered a short position here if i had not been in already. if "yes" then i hold my current short.

    Qs ~56, holding on.
     
    #34     Jan 10, 2011
  5. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Betting against Intel. Wow, brave move, Intel usually has decent earnings. Could always be different this time of course, but I believe their previous guidance was strong.
     
    #35     Jan 10, 2011
  6. pspr

    pspr

    OK. Good luck to you, buddy.
     
    #36     Jan 10, 2011
  7. Qs 56.56 - still holding...

    ~3.5% drawdown - this is the size of the drawdown when i should be taking the loss really soon and starting a totally new trade UNDER MOST circumstances.

    BUT

    i just re-checked my various secret "indicators" and the good news is that most most likely we will see 54 very soon (a week or a few days) while the upside is extremely limited ~1%. Therefore, I chose to sit through the pain a bit longer.

    Obviously, the trade went bad and I am just trying to find a reasonably good exit based on what i see in the market.
     
    #37     Jan 12, 2011
  8. out 55.55
     
    #38     Jan 28, 2011
  9. to summarize, this concludes the trade that had the following characteristics:
    1. lasted >1 month
    2. showed only limited unrealized profit
    3. went into 5% drawdown
    4. was covered for -2%.

    basically, i got humbled by the market yet again. the upward momentum was way stronger than i expected.

    i do think that 54 is reachable within 1-2 weeks. so i may short again if QQQQ goes to ~56.3 to give myself some room for error.


    Qs 56.11 AH
     
    #39     Jan 31, 2011
  10. short 56.42
     
    #40     Feb 1, 2011