I am not calling a crash.. never even said that word. I am not a super trader.. nor do i claim to be a guru. I am just trading for a living and have fun conversing on ET. You are right! when I will be a super trader and be moving millions of $ in the market I wont be posting my positions. But I scale only a few houndred shares in and out and consider myself a profitable and decent trader. If I make over $1k for the day.. I am very happy. On average I try to make few houndred here and there. Lets get real over here. --MIKE
One guy thinks this is top -- woopdeedoo. You disagree? Go long and be happy in knowing that the money you make is coming out of his account and into yours. But let's stop trying to convince the world that your way to trade is the only way; "don't short new highs cuz it's scary when it goes higher" is pretty ridiculous advice when it comes to trading, every trade has the risk of loss and that's the name of the game. You can try shorting after the turn but you can never be sure if that is THE turn, no matter what trendline or tape-reading methods you use, and you will lose far more when that specialist or whatever market forces rip it higher once again compared to those who managed to catch the temporary top. And guess what, some people actually scale into a position trade, meaning they don't expect their first sales to be the highest prices and are willing to take drawdowns while slowly increasing size. This may seem strange to you, but the ironic thing is that these types of traders are the ones who ultimately admit that they CANNOT time the exact top, and so divide their entries over a larger frame of time and price. If you truly believe that one cannot time the exact reversal point, then scaling is the most conservative method of entry (or exit), and far better than waiting until everyone else in the room agrees that yes, that line is broken, now you can go short etc.
You hit the mark. That is excactly why I scale trade. I am not smart enough to predict each and every move.. but I have a bias which is based on many different factors that I base my trading on. In my experience by the time the market breaks its trendlines or MA the slippage increases, your risk to reward diminishes.. and most importantly its usually the best time to start scaling out for profits. If the market gives u the feeble reaction to enter again as it does its fake out move .. than many smart traders will short the move including myself. That is more of a textbook style trade. Only problem is that when the market really wants to move rarely it will allow u to enter at a good risk to reward after the intial move... ( ex. 1987). --MIKE
LOL ok whatever You guys completely missed what I was trying to point out. I thought my example of the shorts getting ripped was enough but apparently not. Keep on entering your trades with the majority. If it works for you, then great. I just find that catching a 2 point short instead of a measly 30 cents works better for me. I just wait the top callers out.
MECRO.. I hate to burst your bubble but not everyone here daytrades stocks for a living. Some people actually swing trade or build positions trades using futures or ETF's. The IWM was actually down 2 full points.. which is a nice move... asumming u are short. I wouldnt even put on a trade with some decent size if it was worth making a only a crappy few cents. Factoring slippage and commisions.. its just not worth it. For the IWM any profit greater than 1 point is decent. 3+ points is ideal... given the current volatility of the instrument. In fact, u are missing the entire point that were both trying to make.... You just continue assume that everyone trades like u do and that is the only way to actually make real $. --MIKE
Just read this article....http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={E3512ADB-1BDF-4FC2-802C-79081D69F140}&siteid=mktw "Stock- and balanced funds attracted an estimated $60 billion in January, breaking the previous record of $56 billion in February 2000, investment research firm Strategic Insight reported." Wasnt Feb 2000 near the top of the market... hmmm?? The funniest thing is that the article says that this time its different because money is not only going to tech.. so therefore its not "hot" money. Theyve got it all wrong... its actually all borrowed money... lol
Why do you assume people who can catch a top will only stay in for 30 cents, while those who wait until after the top is in will take 2 points? One sells at 100, another sells at 98, it retraces back to 99 before going down to 95 -- you're telling me the guy who sold at 98 is going to make more? Sigh why am I still awake lol.
Covered a huge chunk into this selling..... Only 25% short here. Hopefully I will be able to short some more into a nice rally.