All you have to know about Trend Fader is that he SAYS that he has been going short about 250 shares of IWM just about EVERY single day with a $30,000 account for the past 12 straight weeks. Let's take a look at the IWM chart since mid-December. The index rallied from 107 to 120 with barely a hiccup. Anyone that thinks that they can be consistently successfull selling short into new highs and "fading" the primary trend is a total moron. Oh, and please feel free to tell us how many times you lost money and got stopped-out from 107 to 120, especially on those super strong closes that tore shorts apart, day after day? Nah, we wouldn't want to talk about that now would we? Besides, we don't use physical stops . . . only "mental" ones! Mecro, I'm sure that "fading" the primary trend has worked extremely well during this latest Bull move. Quite frankly, I really couldn't care less how people trade . . . But when they come on a public Forum like ET seeking attention, spouting off a lot of egotistical drivel ( ie. James Stock ) without supporting or documenting any of their opinions with a discussion of their trading methodology, then I simply have no tolerance for them. Trend Fader says that he never uses the word CRASH, yet his references to 1987 are numerous and so is his talk about mutual fund inflows being the biggest since February 2000 . . . he also says that he needs to "short the primary trend" because once the market has shown divergences and confirmed a reversal in trend it is simply TOO late to make big gains. Once again, another ridiculous statement, especially when one has experienced the fact that the biggest acceleration in a downmove occurs AT THE END of a decline, when the majority of people are puking positions and very few shorts are left to be found. Moreover, yesterday Trend Faders said that he was 100% short with a target of the 50 Day MA being broken at 113.65 and yet he covered a majority of his alleged short position after a small pullback off the opening gap higher. Hmmmmm.... Sounds pretty conflicting, eh? I mean if you are worried about missing out on the big 5% drop in the IWM, why would you want to cover? Why would you risk getting almost flat and not being able to get your 100% short position "on" again? What changed him from being so Bearish, to wanting to lighten up yesterday morning? We will never know. We will never know because Trend Fader has no trading discipline or methodology whatsoever. He is just another young college kid that has access to the Internet that wants to see his name up on a website somewhere . . . Just like James Stock, Romeo,m Chapa-Bracca, etc. "I do not trade based on simple patterns or cute little charts. My trading is soley based on figuring out the tape and forming the right short term bias on the market for the next few days and weeks.." Please let us know when you graduate to the point of using "cute little charts" . . . Perhaps in that way we will finally be able to understand just WHAT YOUR TRADING METHODOLOGY IS. Until then, it is all just opinion supported by absolutely nothing.
Some people like to bash others when they are making $. Atleast if I was totally wrong and IWM rallied to new highs.. I deserve to get heat.. but the fact that I was dead on.. is sad. I pretty much scaled out completely of IWM.. and now am short a little DIA. Will look for a nice sized bounce to enter IWM again for a short. --MIKE
Let's see if you can understand this: You never go long. You only go short and fade the primary trend. Furthermore, you have never come on any one of these threads posting that you lost money being short the IWM as it rallied from 107 in mid-December to 120. All you do is babble about how you are making money here, and making money there, with not a losing day. It's also very strange how you only seem to appear on these threads on DOWN days, no? You also fail to support your opinions with any technical analysis or trading methodology. You make a statement, totally unsupported by anything technical and yet you expect us not to flame you and give you the utmost of respect? Puuleeeze, spare us with the sob story about making money and getting bashed.
4th greatest cyclical rally in history. Up 95% in a 15-month period. First move down off the highs on January 26th at 2153.83 was 140 points. A classical "measured-move" would target 1955. Have a Great Weekend everyone!
A) Because I see the prints and I count the shorts. 90-100% of the top shorts are out within 30-50 cents in either direction. I usually get in during that pop when the shorts are covering and the longs are trying to bounce the stock. Thats when the trend gets smooth and the big sellers and big long term shorts come in. B) If you are scaling into a stock that's ripping and you are wrong, you cannot stay in for long. Ok you get in at lets say 25.00 as a huge uptick print goes off. Stock stalls a bit, falls off 10 cents due to all the top callers and the buyer comes back and rips the stock another 50 cents. You gonna stay in and keep scaling or you gonna cover? Count your risk and reward which changes real quick since a new top is being called. Imagine this is a stock that is really ripping and you keep trying to catch that top and take 25-50 cent hits 3 times in a row. At the same time how can you even tell if it is a real buyer or the specialist ripping the shorts. Getting in that early, the risk is so high that the reward is simply not worth it. C) Concerning your example. Stocks rarely just print the high and start slowly dropping off in a smooth pattern. Yes hypothetically it sounds like a great plan to catch that perfect top and then watch the stock plummet but that happens like 1 out of 10 times. Most of the times there is noise which either causes the top callers to churn, take hits or turn them into long-term investors. I mean you have like 20-30 traders fighting to get short, cover and bounce the stock, then you got the specialist who can just rip the shorts if it looks like it's worth it. For the risk you take by being that top caller, it is very very very hard to stay in for the long-term downtrend. There will be chops left and right and many times you will see profits evaporate into huge losses because you actually caught a tiny pullback in a ripping uptrend. Stocks test the tops, shorts get ripped, buyers come back to finish up a last few orders.
MECRO, I just dont believe that u still dont get it!! I do not DAYTRADE. I swing trade. When I made the post to start this thread i clearly stated that I swing trade and scale into swing trades. All of this non sense regarding specialists and top ticking to make 20 cents is a bunch of bullshit to me. I dont even trade NYSe stocks. You attacked me from the beginning and still think that u are making a valid point. You just continue to assume that your own experiences with daytrading NYSe stocks apply to someone that swings an ETF. Do you think there is some kind of specialist that moves the entire index around to piss off shorts. Then u dont have a clue about what trading is really about. Maybe in your own little NYSE daytrading me vs. the specialist world.. top picking might not work.. but when u trade entire Markets and Sectors all that jazz u are talking about is not in the playing field. Next time when u make a comment.. just realize that not everyone is scalping NYSE stocks to make a living. --MIKE
You need to learn how to read a lot more carefully, otherwise it makes you look very foolish. Mecro was responding to a post by Illiquid. Not you. Duh.
But I guess that is what your real problem is . . . You are so insecure, and such an "attention" seeker that you think everyone's post is about you. Have a great Weekend!