Not long at all. Win small - Lose big, what a system to advocate, average down to break even "the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy. However, the gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero because the small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with his expected gain. The likelihood of catastrophic loss may not even be very small. The bet size rises exponentially. This, combined with the fact that strings of consecutive losses actually occur more often than common intuition suggests, >>can bankrupt a gambler quickly<<" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
Talking about gambling; I'm back in again. Relying on the old "bouncing ball" principle. Way up. Way down. Should settle half way in between. Yes, a pure gamble. I admit it!
now you are giving Martingale a bad name. He never said you should actually do it. All he said was, if you had infinite capital, there was no risk of ruin.
I see. So that's the USA's hope? They can print as many dollars as they want, so there is no risk of ruin?
I'm pretty happy with the whole deal. Especially buying those dollars when they are low, and selling them when they are high. I think that is going to be a good trade for quite some time. It really isn't that hard if you know what you are trying to do. Might take some time and a little money getting your business set up. But shit, I have known guys that made money selling Chevrolets and Volkswagons, so how much harder could it be selling dollars?
You give me a dollar, and I'll give you one ruble. In four years time, you might actually find that that was a good trade.
no kidding man, I think trading that dollar is a way to go, but you have to be kind of astute. It's not like it is a done deal or anything. Use to be easy. At 83 you could buy gold and at 78 you could sell it. Not sure what the parameters are anymore. But I think there is money to be made buying and selling those dollars. Like I said, takes a while to get set up.
Kind of a departure for me. I am usually spread. But now I am 100% short usd. But I have enough confidence in my trading techniques (if you want to call averaging down a trading technique) to finally make some money. The dolllar is going down. Right?