Short US10Y yield + short USD. Long term opportunity.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by tsfx, Oct 23, 2023.

  1. long

    long

    Is this one of your algorithmic trades? I get the impression that it’s purely discretionary.
     
    #11     Oct 28, 2023
  2. tsfx

    tsfx

    No, these are long(er) term manual trades.

    Algos are built on a completely different logic. I might incorporate fundamentals into some algo trades but in reality it gives me zero extra alpha.
     
    #12     Oct 29, 2023
  3. nitrene

    nitrene

    Shorting the DXY is a poor idea since it is simply a math formula of the Euro, Cable, Yen, Aussie dollar & the Loony. The only realistic way it will go down is if the BoJ decides to end their YCC policy and allows their rates to skyrocket which I doubt they will ever do. The EU & UK are dying economies & Australia/Canada are simply commodity currencies.

    At this point the DXY is simply a measure of the coming global recession/depression. I agree that rates on the 10+ yr bonds will keep going higher, however at some point the US will likely bring back Operation Twist to artificially reduce rates like they did in post WWII and during the later days of Bernanke's Fed reign.
     
    #13     Oct 29, 2023
  4. tsfx

    tsfx

    What does it mean, USD is a math formula of other ccy's?


    that's not at all the only realistic way. USD will make a long term top fairly soon (top might already be in place), it's the rates structure break that will cause the weakness. It just takes time.

    It's interesting how people still talk about booms or recessions as if they are the result of some free economic behaviour. We live in a money printing environment. CB's DECIDE whether there is going to be a boom or a recession not the market.

    We had the worst pandemic with global shut downs and the result was one of the best stock market performance (time weighted) ever. Let that sink in.
     
    #14     Oct 30, 2023
  5. tsfx

    tsfx

    And close.
     
    #15     Nov 14, 2023