What are you going to do when it reaches that level? To be credible why not post your trades right after you make it. I am looking forward to see you make a profitable trade in real time. I tend to be a little skeptical when someone tells me about a trade they made a week ago. Just post shortly (the same day) after you make the trade.
Oh I haven't entered the trade yet...its on deck. I will post the trade when (if) it reaches my entry level.
industry parlance is short theta for short option btw. you are selling the option, selling the theta, therefore collecting as it trends towards zero (you hope). as for probability of profit lets use delta as a hand wavy prob calc. your delta on a long or a short position in the same option will be roughly the same just with a different sign in front of it. when you buy or sell an option all you really care about is whether realized vol is going to be greater or less than the implied vol you transacted at (assuming you delta hedged throughout the life of the option). at the money forward strikes will be about 50/50 profitable vs un profitable.
with that being said due to that lopsided risk, there is usually an implied volatility premium over realized so the short side should be compensated for taking that risk. in the absence of all information sell them vs buy them but it doesn't necessarily make that the better trade. if you look at long term pnl short vol traders have lots of positive days and the occasional giant loss. options are non linear, so their pnl will be skewed (negative skew for short vol, positive for long)
you prob shouldnt listen to whoever dan ganancial is bc of this point here: Lower volatility exposure: Selling options can reduce a trader's exposure to market volatility compared to buying options. Option sellers can profit from time decay and the option expiring worthless rather than being impacted by sudden market swings like option buyers. when you sell options you are massively exposed to vol risk and in a very negative way. holders of long volatility have "lower" vol risk in that if vol explodes they make money rather than getting carried out.
You guys keep taking about risk...what risk? You take the shares is the worst case scenario. This can be managed a variety of ways. I'd rather take money in the bank up front than rely on a big if price moves 1 SD just to break even in a lot of cases. Unrealized losses are no more losses than unrealized gains are gains.
I dont get why someone with your excellence at picking direction,would resort to selling naked options.. Why limit your upside?? To increase the likelihood of being right??