sounds good... i've only made a meager 30 pips last nite, and on low leverage... didn't feel like jumping into this massive showdown between euro fanatics and... the economic realities of the moment... there must be a lot of bloody noses around today... am still amazed that sterling shld have fared so well though - still above 1.74! - and at how it appreciated steadily against EUR, post US TB figure... but i've got the week-end to try and better understand how the battle was fought, which pairs were used to build momentum etc... and the rest of next week's UK figures to test my LT view on sterling long live the new thread!
with gold and oil down again, i suspect to see a continuation of currency trends from last week. at least, for tonight. eur/jpy looking weak again short-term. trading at 140.00 right now. i would watch for a break, then ride it down.
i'm shorting usd/jpy at 117.85. look for a re-test of 117. my concern would be any weakness in the eur/usd 1.1909 gbp/usd 1.7425
stopped out of usd/jpy at 118.00 for a 15 pip loss. usd/jpy broke out, i'm watching. oil looks poised for some rebound at 61.70 gbp looks weak under 1.74 as 2 cents has been expecting, will oil give any support to the gbp/usd?
some respite for gbp around 1.74 level, on the back of ok-ish figures today... lets see tom's cpi numbers... BoE expected to have voted 5-4, outlook not so good, but if eco numbers get better... jpy... thing is, fukui / japanese trust banks can only surprise the mkt so many times by dumping gold for yen on the mkt... once in dec, another time on feb 7, then later again on good machine order figures... think we'll have to wait for next week's cpi figures for (perhaps) some renewed strength on the yen (JP GDP figures notoriously unreliable...) oil... mmmhhh, thats a pretty tough one, can't see much of a case for a bounce there tho... and to be honest, same for gold, pretty topish now that US rates r clearly back in the 5% region to stay... am off till kiwi retail sales figures, always a fun play! cheerio
when the nikkei goes down, the yen goes up... that's my unfounded basis for shorting the usd/jpy hehe... @ 117.70 oil might catch a little rebound with all the talk about colder weather etc... providing support for eur, gbp.
i'm covering usd/jpy at 117.45 (25 pip gain) for right now. not too much direction. probably see some action around when europe markets open up. have to read up and watch.
good call on the yen mate... again gold down -> yen up... but why did they have to do that in the morning? %$#@ am gonna have to change my trading schedule a bit for these next few weeks i guess... uk cpi figures r going to be hard to trade methinks... probably the headline MoM figure will be above or v.close to -0.4% expected... and YoY core cpi expectations r fairly reasonable at +1.4%... gbp bounce bias??
i guess not... uk's managed to disappoint way beyong even my expectations! if GE/EC figures in 5 minutes r as bad, that's going to be interesting!
sterling & eur have bounced back above the 100 line for no good reason, good short candidates i wld think