================ Weak rally this week favors shorts, summer rally tends to be weak also; however 1st day/week of month tends to be bullish. In favor of polar bears; august 1st was down. See what direction trades this week. Prefer candlechart daytrade[not scalp usually,] with ES.
Though I am short here also, I do not believe this week we will see ES declining, if anything I see it breaking today's High and making a run towards 1300 mark. If you are playing a swing game here on the short side I would look into widening stops and/or re-shuffling position size.
FYI, my stop is the worst case out for me - I usually pre-emptively stop out when the position doesn't show signs of movement in my direction right from the start. I usually try not to lose more than 3-5 ES points on any trade. Sometimes I wash, some times I take the max stop loss - a lot of times it's somewhere in the middle.
that's cool, but you might be sitting on a winner here and all you have to do is reduce initial position size, by doing so you are widening your stop level and opening up to adding if your timing is off, no one is perfect. Just a thought.
yes, also note the VIX stair-stepping up: The last step (resistance) at about 13 and now holding around the 14 level. There are also opportunities in long puts on the less expensive SP-500 components such as the very toppy JPM & others. Some Jan 07 high Vega puts can be considered straight plays or hedges against upside picks; it's almost a can't lose situation and at least a good expectancy entry point. Cheers and happy trading.
Agree on the short bias in ES, however, the market may not sell off until Friday 8/4 or later......mutual fund mgrs typically have 3 days at the beg. of each month to allocate their cash. Mutual fundies buying and the hedgies short covering is what this recent rally is based on, IMHO. I only daytrade ES and may scalp a long or two, but MP is giving me bias for a bigger move down within the next week......but I can turn on a dime too. Flexibility rules the day.
Yes, thats one way of getting to the end goal. My strategy is more timing orientated in that I get stopped out very small and often. Once I get the trade working correctly, I really pile in. I never let losers go very far period. If the trade isn't working, I kill it, no matter what. I would have no problems killing this trade in the coming day or two and re-entering at the 1300 level.