Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by jjjjjjjjjjjjj, May 13, 2005.
The analysis quoted is misleading. Commercials reduced their exposure in the 10 year for both longs and shorts:<pre>
Long Short Net
May 3: 1,333,135 1,070,971 262,164
May 10: 1,327,889 1,037,613 290,276
Change: -5,246 -33,358 28,112 </pre>
So yes, the net long position is now larger, but it seems like it was more of covering shorts rather than establishing new longs.
The open interest in the 30 year has also been falling on this rally the past few weeks. That's not a sign of 'buying the rally' but instead indicative of covering positions.
I know some major players that have been shorting the heck out of the long end for months now, those yields will go up it's just a matter of time
I am just getting more familiar with the COT reports. I noticed that you are referring to data from the Futures Only report.
Why Futures Only and not Delta-adjusted Options and Futures Combined? That report seems to show a somewhat different result.
A good explanation may be simply that the majority of options traded on the bonds are institutional hedges rather than speculative positions, by nature contradicting the core futures position taken
look out for 112-16....if we break through with some force we could continue the move up for quite a while in the 10yr
... or we could just as easily end up with a July'03 or an April'04.
The risk/reward ratios are getting quite skewed here. I wonder if we'd even be here had it not been for the hedge fund CDO scare and the auto makers' downgrades. A strong PPI report tomorrow and the yield on the TY could rise back to 4.25. my 2 cents to balance the discussion...
I subscribe to the "something else is out there" theory... with a near $9 break in oil prices, the S&P should be flying...
and gold and silver should be diving, ....they ain't..........
Fitch will need to do something with Ford and GM paper and Big Al must be counting dots on the ceiling at nite....
an opinion of course...........
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